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Will a third party or independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2008 Presidential Race?

Forecast: No (76% chance 2% )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 76% (up 2% in last 1 day)

 
% chance over time
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Yes
24%
No
76%
Total activity: H$5,764
Question suspends in 23 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by CNN.

 
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  • Question status: Open
  • Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (23 weeks to go)
  • Settlement details: As reported by CNN.
  • Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%
Created Wed 30th Jan 10:51am PST by theonecalledmichael
Edited Tue 11th Mar 5:05am PST by ryanj[Admin]
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score: 10

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Will a third party or independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2008 Presidential Race?
Yes
1 week ago
jenniandboys[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100)
2 weeks ago
lucidstates predicted No (H$380)
4 weeks ago
tertius predicted No (H$100)
4 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Yes (H$100)
7 weeks ago
gabrielwest predicted No (H$100)
10 weeks ago
No user imagebearguy predicted No (H$20)
12 weeks ago
mernahuana predicted Yes (H$20)
12 weeks ago
No user imagecoolkraft predicted No (H$100)
15 weeks ago
No user imagemorrison1916 predicted No (H$100)
16 weeks ago
No user imagergroh1 predicted No (H$100)