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Will a bomb kill more than 10 people within 1 mile of the main Olympics complex during the Olympics?

Settled as No

Original question: Will there be a bomb explosion ( more than 10 people killed ) anywhere within 1 mile of the vicinity of the main Olympics complex at Beijing during Olympics 2008?

The chances of any such protests arise from the recent developments in Tibet , but will the Tibetan freedom movement spiral out of control.
(personal thought : I hope this doesn't happen)
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
4%
No
96%
Activity: H$43,707
Settled as No on last Sunday 1:54pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Thu 21st Aug 8:59am PDT

Settlement date: last Sunday 1:54pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 21st Aug 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 19th Apr 12:01pm PDT by junkie_1
Suspended Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 4th Aug 5:43am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Re-opened to suspend closer to the closing day of the Olympics.
Suspended Thu 21st Aug 8:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested last Sunday 7:05am PDT by jake: Settle as no. Nothing like this ever reported.
Settled as 'No' last Sunday 1:54pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: No such reports.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (59)

59 predictions

1 week ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 3%)
1 week ago
krups predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)
1 week ago
evlsexione predicted Yes (H$10 at 4%)
1 week ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 7%)
1 week ago
iksor predicted No (H$20 at 94%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 junkie_1
The one mile radius will be decided by using a proper scale and the maps available on Google earth.
posted 18 weeks ago
The Olympics run to the 24th of August. I'm going to extend the suspend date until the 21st according to the 7 day rule on suspend time to settlement time. This should let others in on this market.
posted 3 weeks ago
Sorry junkie_1. To extend the suspend date, I had to tighten the question text to fit newer 100 character limit for questions.
posted 3 weeks ago

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