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Created Wed 27th Feb 3:14pm PST by dohler
All questions » Science » Scientific Discoveries » 

Will a free energy device be scientifically validated in 2008? If so, what device?

Current forecast: No devices are validated. (93% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No devices are validated. with a probability of 93% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Steorn's Orbo device didn't function when it was unveiled, while Thane Heins recently puzzled an MIT professor with his free-energy device. Will either of these devices be confirmed to produce free energy in 2008?
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

 Only Steorn's Orbo device is validated.
3%
Only Thane Heins' device is validated.
2%
Neither Steorn or Heins' devices are validated, but some other free-energy device is.
1%
More than one device is validated.
3%
No devices are validated.
93%
Activity: H$20,190
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: A mainstream news source must report that scientists have reached a consensus confirming that the given device does indeed supply free energy.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Only Steorn's Orbo device is validated.: 1%, Only Thane Heins' device is validated.: 1%, Neither Steorn or Heins' devices are validated, but some other free-energy device is.: 1%, More than one device is validated.: 1%, No devices are validated.: 96%

Action history:

Created Wed 27th Feb 3:14pm PST by dohler
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:30pm PST by tisha[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: A mainstream news source must report that scientists have reached a consensus confirming that the given device does indeed supply free energy.... read all

 

Predictions (89)

89 predictions

7 hours ago
hope_cruor predicted No devices are validated. (H$20 at 93%)
2 days ago
rk725 predicted No devices are validated. (H$488 at 92%)
6 days ago
ranchorosco predicted No devices are validated. (H$100 at 91%)
6 days ago
rk725 predicted No devices are validated. (H$500 at 90%)
2 weeks ago
gadget666 predicted No devices are validated. (H$4 at 88%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 kaer_fyzarc
haha, perpetual motion. I would wager my life that they won't validate on within the next decade.
posted 27 weeks ago
  2 mjackson33
Not really perpetual motion. The theory behind them is that they take advantage of the movements of electrons, and fluctuations in magnetic fields (which are really very close to the same thing) and the energy those have. They aren't really free energy, there is no such thing, they are just incredibly efficient. Free energy does not exist. Energy can change form, but cannot be destroyed or created.
posted 26 weeks ago
  3 arnos
:O I'm shocked that more then half of the bets are going towards free energy.
posted 26 weeks ago
  4 duckie
can we just settle this now? maybe we have someone read a physics book and then request settlement....
posted 26 weeks ago
  5 dohler
I'm amazed at the numbers here too. When I made this, I set the "No devices are validated" answer at 96% and thought to myself "That's too low." But, I don't think the question should be closed prematurely just because the laws of physics dictate the answer. The fact that so many people are willing to bet against the laws of physics is interesting in itself.
posted 25 weeks ago
  6 jersjusttrolling
physics majors have consistently proven their forebears wrong. And I'm glad that they have.
I'm amazed that anyone would want to close this market so soon.
I may be 'blind' to the actual physics of the question, but in my mind, 'hope' prevails. I'll never bet against a physicist.
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 jersjusttrolling
besides, ... the $H to be made if ...
posted 25 weeks ago
  8 duckie
lol, "hope prevails"
posted 24 weeks ago
  9 kaer_fyzarc
If it is "very efficient" then it isn't a free energy device. Very efficient things have been built. They just don't do so well with delivering high capacities of energy. Solar panels deliver "free energy" since we have sunlight delivered to us free of charge. But they aren't free energy devices.
posted 21 weeks ago
  10 notablenotices
Yes, we can! Yes, we can! (spoken like the grandson of some typical white person...)
posted 11 weeks ago

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