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Will a giant tsunami cause mass death (+10,000 casualties) somewhere in the world in 2008?

Current forecast: 15% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 15% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

tsunamis are scary and unpredicable
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
15%
No
85%
Activity: H$18,201
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 31st Jan 4:21pm PST by constantskeptic
Edited Mon 10th Mar 4:42am PDT by tisha[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (83)

83 predictions

1 day ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$5,000 at 80%)
1 day ago
scharrukin predicted No (H$100 at 75%)
2 days ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$1,000 at 74%)
6 days ago
jjth predicted No (H$50 at 72%)
6 days ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$20 at 72%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 dollars
you should weigh in on the question @ getsatisfaction by clicking help then the getsatisfaction link the question there is:

"Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?

To date, Hubdub staff who settle questions have also participated in making predictions on those and other questions. We have strived to be as objective as possible on every settlement and settlements are regularly cross-checked. However some users perceive that this conflict of interest may cause us to incorrectly settle questions for our benefit. We can change the rules to:
(1) No restriction (status quo)
(2) No predicting on questions within their category
(3) No predicting on any questions

Thoughts?
posted 31 weeks ago
this question is related to the earthquake in the canary islands question
posted 24 weeks ago
  3 dragon01
I choose what's behind 'door' 2.
posted 3 weeks ago

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