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Will a plug-in Toyota Prius beat the Chevy Volt to the showroom?

Background: Chevrolet has announced plans to have their plug-in hybrid car, the Volt, available by 2010. Toyota has also announced plans to offer a plug-in version of their popular Prius hybrid, but have not officially set a date for its availability. Will Toyota push to have their car out first, or will Chevy make their deadline?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Volt reaches market first
4%
Plug-in Prius reaches market first
5%
Neither is available by 2010
91%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Volt reaches market first: 50%, Plug-in Prius reaches market first: 35%, Neither is available by 2010: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 2008 12:11pm PST by mcoen
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 2:02pm PST by andrew

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (50)

2 weeks ago
hasi9119 predicted Plug-in Prius reaches market first (H$100 at 3%)
5 weeks ago
jc4573 predicted Neither is available by 2010 (H$100 at 95%)
12 weeks ago
calster17 predicted Plug-in Prius reaches market first (H$10 at 23%)
18 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted Plug-in Prius reaches market first (H$500 at 13%)
19 weeks ago
mikeo7b3 predicted Neither is available by 2010 (H$100 at 52%)

Comments (7)

Is the outcome of this likely to be determined before 2010 ("beat the Chevy Volt to the showroom?") - ?

With a "suspend date" of 2009, will H$ be held, unavailable, until one or the other car gets to the showroom?
posted 1 year ago
  2 lesley[Admin]
We need to take this literally,i.e. it will be settled when the first of these cars hits the showroom. And yes, H$ would be held until that point. (Unless you cash out early of course).
posted 1 year ago
  3 rassi
When you say "by 2010" does that mean Jan 1, 2010, or does that mean Dec 31, 2010?
posted 43 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
@rassi - it means before Jan 1 2010 - link from our rules:

http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules
The term "by" will be considered to be exclusive of the date referenced. E.g. "Will the satellite hit earth by March 25th?" will be settled as a "Yes" if it hits prior to March 25th, and 'No' if it hits on March 25th or later. Where possible, category editors should edit 'by' to 'before', to avoid ambiguity.
In outcomes involving dates which are intended to be mutually exclusive, it is suggested that 'between' is inclusive of the dates given unless this leads to date overlap in the outcomes. Where possible, category editors should edit to 'on or between' or 'between, exclusive of' to avoid ambiguity.
posted 43 weeks ago
  5 petty
For some, it usually works out in favor of the Prius. We just can't wait for a cheap vehicle to be produced. Thus, we know that Prius <a href="http://www.alloemcarparts.com">parts</a> can duplicate its performance of a plug-in hybrid.
posted 41 weeks ago
  6 petty
For some, it usually works out in favor of the Prius. We just can't wait for a cheap vehicle to be produced. Thus, we know that Prius [url=http://www.alloemcarparts.com]parts[/url] can duplicate its performance of a plug-in hybrid.
posted 41 weeks ago
  7 rassi
This article (http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090202/CARNEWS/902029995) says the plug-in Prius, which is getting 65 mpg in real-world testing, won't be available until after 2010. Combine that with the fact that Chevy isn't going to even start manufacturing the Volt until Nov 2009 (at the earliest), and it seems as if "Neither" is the one to bet on here....
posted 41 weeks ago

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