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Will a post-Kyoto agreement be signed by 2012?

Background: The Kyoto protocol expires in 2012. Will our new world leaders will agree to a similar, replacement protocol?

Settlement details:As reported by the New York Times or the Guardian.
'post-Kyoto agreement' is any treaty or protocol focussed on the reduction of greenhouse gases.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
72%
No
28%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jan 2012 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jan 2008 10:14pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:42pm PST by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jan 2012 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (24)

8 weeks ago
dean2 predicted No (H$100 at 28%)
9 weeks ago
zeebac predicted No (H$20 at 31%)
10 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$500 at 29%)
14 weeks ago
frogchop predicted Yes (H$500 at 72%)
15 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Yes (H$500 at 70%)

Comments (6)

  1 ryanj
Even if one is signed, it won't be a big deal unless the U.S. or China sign it.
posted 2 years ago
  2 sathu
The Kyoto protocol has been big news, particularly with the EU, which is why there is so much pressure on the US to ratify the next one. Even if the targets haven't been achieved, the political pressure the protocol has generated is still significant.
posted 2 years ago
  3 pics4d
with kyoto, there was supposed to be like 75% of the largest countries sign or whatever...on what basis will this Q be decided?
posted 43 weeks ago
Climategate claims its first big political scalp
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100018413/climategate-claims-its-first-big-political-scalp/
Australian conservatives have shown the way by dumping the party leader who was in favour of massive carbon taxes and replacing him with one who stated last month that AGW is “crap.”

This makes Malcolm Turnbull, the suddenly-ex-leader of Australia’s Liberal party, the first major political victim of the Climategate furore. And his replacement Tony Abbott, the first politician to reap the benefits of the world’s growing scepticism towards ManBearPig. Of the three candidates, he was the only one committed to delaying the Australian government’s proposed Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
[More at the link...]
posted 15 weeks ago
  5 frogchop
While I don't dispute that there has been a general warming trend to the environment over the last 10,000 years, the science supporting CO2/human caused global warming is dubious. That's not to say we aren't royally screwing up this planet as fast as we can by using unsustainable agricultural practices, burning fossil fuels like they were infinite, and overpopulation, but the idea that Carbon Taxes and Cap and Trade are anything but new ways for the governments of the world to have new sources of income is ignorant.
posted 14 weeks ago
Scott Ott's Examiner Scrappleface: Obama Copenhagen speech solves climate crisis
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Obama-Copenhagen-speech-solves-climate-crisis-8666528-79570882.html

Delegates to the global climate conference in Copenhagen sat in stunned silence today as President Obama solved the global warming crisis with a single 25-minute speech.
[More at the link...]
posted 10 weeks ago

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