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Will an Airbus A380 crash in 2008?

Current forecast: 5% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 5% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$14,972
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 21st Feb 11:02am PST by paulcroft
Edited Fri 22nd Feb 8:09am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Tue 26th Feb 2:06pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Edited Mon 10th Mar 2:40pm PDT by diana

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (24)

24 predictions

1 day ago
paulcroft predicted No (H$4,000 at 93%)
3 weeks ago
growthy predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
7 weeks ago
fooobart predicted No (H$20 at 84%)
15 weeks ago
fish predicted No (H$50 at 84%)
19 weeks ago
chris[Admin] predicted No (H$400 at 84%)
more

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