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My Predictions

Will an extension of the Mehdi Army's ceasefire be announced by midnight, Saturday?

Settled as Yes

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/22/iraq.main/index.html

Yes

Background:

Note that 12:59PM PST is 11:59PM Baghdad local time. An aide to Moqtada al-Sadr says that an announcement on whether the ceasefire will be extended will be announced by that time.
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
62%
No
38%
Activity: H$14,485
Settled as Yes on Fri 22nd Feb 5:32am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Feb 12:59pm PST

Settlement date: Fri 22nd Feb 5:32am PST

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Feb 3:20am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 20th Feb 10:03am PST by dohler
Settlement requested Fri 22nd Feb 5:22am PST by phred: show details
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (47)

47 predictions

33 weeks ago
phred predicted Yes (H$100 at 71%)
33 weeks ago
phred predicted Yes (H$100 at 71%)
33 weeks ago
soproudlywehail predicted Yes (H$100 at 64%)
33 weeks ago
bearguy predicted Yes (H$50 at 62%)
33 weeks ago
chamaeleon predicted No (H$50 at 41%)
more

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