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Will an independent Palestinian state be created by the time President Bush leaves office?

Current forecast: 5% chance 9%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 5% likely to happen (down 9% in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$16,503
Question suspends in 8 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 30th Jan 5:42pm PST by dohler
Edited Tue 11th Mar 6:24am PDT by ryanj[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (19)

19 predictions

6 weeks ago
carrjm predicted No (H$100 at 85%)
14 weeks ago
harishadzimuratovic predicted No (H$100 at 85%)
14 weeks ago
conlon1 predicted No (H$100 at 85%)
19 weeks ago
dave723 predicted No (H$100 at 85%)
20 weeks ago
owlcreekobserver predicted No (H$50 at 85%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 wijiki
How do you define independent? Gaza is currently free of outside rulers, even though it's not officially recognized by any Western nations.
posted 41 weeks ago
  2 dohler
But in order to satisfy the question, Gaza would have to be a "state," not just independent. Some countries recognize Gaza as a state, but as you point out, Western countries do not. So in order for the question to be answered "yes," there would have to be wide recognition of the Palestinian state (otherwise it's not a state), and a lack of continuing control of airspace and territorial waters by Israel (otherwise it's not independent).
posted 41 weeks ago

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