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Will another asteroid be rated as a 3 or higher on the Torino Scale before the end of 2010?

Background: The Torino scale measures the threat level of asteroids. See Wikipedia for more info. It only counts if it stays at 3 or higher for more then 2 days.

Level 3 on the scale is defined as:
"A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." --Wikipedia

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
17%
No
83%
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 13th Mar 2008 6:27pm PST by arnos

Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (52)

5 hours ago
tkui predicted No (H$50 at 83%)
5 days ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$555 at 84%)
3 weeks ago
chinadoll predicted Yes (H$20 at 18%)
5 weeks ago
intlibber predicted Yes (H$50 at 19%)
5 weeks ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$777 at 79%)

Comments (4)

what threat level was given to asteriod 2007 TU24 ?
posted 2 years ago
  2 arnos
I am not sure but I am guessing it was a 1.
posted 1 year ago
wow, great question arnos! I love astronomy, I should have thought of this.
posted 1 year ago
According to Wikipedia, only 1asteroid has been ratd as 3 or higher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_Scale#Objects_with_high_Torino_ratings

So a 27% chance is way too high.
posted 9 weeks ago

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