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Will any nuclear materials from U.S. inventory be discovered to be lost or misplaced?

Voided

from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080327/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/missile_mistake Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered a full inventory of all nuclear weapons and related materials after the mistaken delivery of ballistic missile fuses to Taiwan, the Pentagon said Thursday. It was the second nuclear-related mistake involving the military that has been revealed in recent months. In August an Air Force B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and flown from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., to Barksdale Air Force Base, La. At the time, the pilot and crew were unaware they had nuclear arms aboard. will nuclear materials and /or related items been discovered missing or of unknown whereabouts?
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

nothing lost
99%
1-4 items
1%
5-8 items
0%
9-12 items
0%
13+ items
0%
Voided Tue 17th Jun 8:40am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source....each item counts as 1 i.e. in cone example it would be 4, the b-52 bomber would count as 6....counts even if they find items misplaced and lost for while, but then recovered from within u.s. military possession as long as they report it.

Suspend date: Sun 15th Jun 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: nothing lost: 28%, 1-4 items: 26%, 5-8 items: 21%, 9-12 items: 15%, 13+ items: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Mar 3:37pm PDT by pics4d
Settlement requested Wed 28th May 6:57am PDT by Erik: show details
Please see comment section for settlement date discussion. The link posted is no longer "alive" however: http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/03/27/pentagon.nuclear.review/index.html has the same statement, "The inventory review, which will involve thousands of items, is due to Gates in 60 days" 60 days from the market's creation was yesterday, May 27th. Since there has been nothing lost reported by a major mainstream news source, "Nothing lost" should be the sttlement to this market.
Suspended Wed 28th May 9:54am PDT by diana: Reviewing news of reports.
Suspended Sun 15th Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'nothing lost' Tue 17th Jun 8:28am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: No reports of materials being lost or misplaced as of suspend date
Previous action withdrawn Tue 17th Jun 8:40am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Voided Tue 17th Jun 8:40am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source....each item counts as 1 i.e. in cone example it would be 4, the b-52 bomber would count as 6....counts even if they find items misplaced and lost for while, but then recovered from within u.s. military possession as long as they report it.... read all

 

Predictions (71)

71 predictions

17 weeks ago
steph predicted nothing lost (H$20 at 90%)
17 weeks ago
myunion predicted nothing lost (H$20 at 90%)
17 weeks ago
beel predicted nothing lost (H$100 at 93%)
17 weeks ago
aland predicted nothing lost (H$100 at 70%)
17 weeks ago
hoernla predicted nothing lost (H$50 at 69%)
more

Comments (20)

  1 Erik
Your posted link states, "Gates told officials with the Air Force, Navy and Defense Logistics Agency to assess inventory control procedures for the materials and to submit a report within 60 days." With that in mind; Why no settlement date?

posted 27 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
I'm sending pics4d an email to see if he has a suspend date for this.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 27 weeks ago
  3 diana
Do we have any idea for a suspend date?
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 Erik
According to the link posted in the background...60 days.
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 Erik
But, I'm STILL awaiting a response to my comment (#1, above)
posted 24 weeks ago
  6 pics4d
sorry all, i have lost my internet connection and won't be on regularly for about another month...figured with the way the government works, the report could be delayed....any end date is fine with me
posted 21 weeks ago
  7 Erik
This should be settled. Although the background link is nolonger active, this is the same story noting the 60 day comment: http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/03/27/pentagon.nuclear.review/index.html
posted 19 weeks ago
Here's a more recent link:
http://www.timesrecordnews.com/news/2008/may/05/ap-enterprise-congress-energy-department-document-/

Also, we should give the military a little bit longer to release their report. They don't declassify things in a day...
posted 19 weeks ago
  9 Erik
jenni...your link refers to the Energy Dept. This market concerns the D.O.D. Also, seeing the comments, it looks like the "60-day" thing was fine a week ago when pics4d finally responded. There were no objections. Just how long to you propose this should ride?
posted 19 weeks ago
  10 Erik
And, I might add...where were your thoughts a week ago?...Four weeks ago, when I commented in re: 60 days?
posted 19 weeks ago
The category editor is the final decision on these issues, I was just giving an opinion and I didn't respond to your earlier comment because I didn't notice it (General isn't my typical balliwick).

You're right - I didn't notice that the other article was the Energy department (although to be fair, the market doesn't specify that it HAS to be from the military arsenal -- I agree it is certainly implied though!)

I do think declassification takes a while though, so giving them at least another couple of weeks to read through, parse and release the report seems fair given that the market has already been running for two months.

Finally, if there is no report, I do not see how we can possibly settle as nothing lost -- we simply do not know.

Given that we've both sent in settlement requests, I imagine the editor will weigh in within the next day or so with his/her take on it.
posted 19 weeks ago
  12 Erik
"see if another report comes out in the next couple of months."...unbelievable. And this from a so-called power-user. The report you cite concerns the Energy Dept. not "nuclear materials from U.S. inventory" obviously pertaining to the Dept. of Defense. I take it you have H$ on 1-13+ items, eh, jenni?
posted 19 weeks ago
  13 Erik
"Finally, if there is no report, I do not see how we can possibly settle as nothing lost -- we simply do not know."
If no loss is reported by a major mainstream news source, then.........guess what? There's nothing lost reported by a major mainstream news source.

posted 19 weeks ago
As I said, it was just my opinion and I'll wait for a category editor's clarification on their intentions.

I have 20$ on 13+ which is 1/10,000 of my networth (all my predictions are public, feel free to look).
posted 19 weeks ago
  15 kruijs[Power User]
Erik, there is a difference between "media reporting that nothing is lost" and "media do not report that anything is lost", feel it?
Take care, Erik, we're just users like you in the first place. We are selected by the hubdub responsibles to support them. In the end it's up to them to deside what to do. We are no judges in any way.
posted 19 weeks ago
  16 Erik
just pondering the speed of reviewing that transpires in 24 hours of "Reviewing news of reports"
posted 19 weeks ago
  17 Erik
Obviously awaiting other news...therefore suspension should be lifted. If not, void or settle.
This is just one more example of HubDub folly.
posted 19 weeks ago
  18 Erik
Thank you, Hubdub gods, for making a decision on this. By un-suspending, you allow the market to do what markets do.
(ya gotta admit 48 hours is along time to be reviewing news reports)
posted 19 weeks ago
  19 diana
Hello everyone, we are a bit puzzled here at headquarters. The issue with settlement is that the 60 days have passed and we don't know if the report is in or when/if any of it will be released to the public. We've decided that waiting until June 15th is decent. If there's nothing released by the market will be voided.
posted 19 weeks ago
it could be beetle dung, for all i care, but i implore HD admins and superheroes... these pages are loading too slow... remove reddit and digg CRAP from this site!
posted 18 weeks ago

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