Will any nuclear materials from U.S. inventory be discovered to be lost or misplaced?
Voided
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nothing lost |
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1-4 items |
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5-8 items |
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9-12 items |
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13+ items |
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Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source....each item counts as 1 i.e. in cone example it would be 4, the b-52 bomber would count as 6....counts even if they find items misplaced and lost for while, but then recovered from within u.s. military possession as long as they report it.
Suspend date: Sun 15th Jun 12:59am PDT
Initial likelihoods:
nothing lost: 28%, 1-4 items: 26%, 5-8 items: 21%, 9-12 items: 15%, 13+ items: 10%
Action history:
I think either you: void because of unclear settlement or leave it open a bit longer to see if another report comes out in the next couple of months.
http://www.timesrecordnews.com/news/2008/may/05/ap-enterprise-congress-energy-department-document-/
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source....each item counts as 1 i.e. in cone example it would be 4, the b-52 bomber would count as 6....counts even if they find items misplaced and lost for while, but then recovered from within u.s. military possession as long as they report it.... read all
Predictions (71)
71 predictions
Comments (20)
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Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
http://www.timesrecordnews.com/news/2008/may/05/ap-enterprise-congress-energy-department-document-/
Also, we should give the military a little bit longer to release their report. They don't declassify things in a day...
You're right - I didn't notice that the other article was the Energy department (although to be fair, the market doesn't specify that it HAS to be from the military arsenal -- I agree it is certainly implied though!)
I do think declassification takes a while though, so giving them at least another couple of weeks to read through, parse and release the report seems fair given that the market has already been running for two months.
Finally, if there is no report, I do not see how we can possibly settle as nothing lost -- we simply do not know.
Given that we've both sent in settlement requests, I imagine the editor will weigh in within the next day or so with his/her take on it.
If no loss is reported by a major mainstream news source, then.........guess what? There's nothing lost reported by a major mainstream news source.
I have 20$ on 13+ which is 1/10,000 of my networth (all my predictions are public, feel free to look).
Take care, Erik, we're just users like you in the first place. We are selected by the hubdub responsibles to support them. In the end it's up to them to deside what to do. We are no judges in any way.
This is just one more example of HubDub folly.
(ya gotta admit 48 hours is along time to be reviewing news reports)
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