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Will military conflict occur between South and North Korea by Nov. 08?

Current forecast: 5% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 5% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$31,525
Question suspends in 8 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

military conflict: Fatalities occur, not a border skirmish in which some rounds are fired off. No accidental action, the actions must be deliberate.

Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 12:59am PDT (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 12:05pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Clarified Sun 6th Apr 1:30pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: See settlement details
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions (58)

58 predictions

2 days ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 4%)
1 week ago
monnggee predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
1 week ago
linny40 predicted No (H$10 at 96%)
1 week ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$4,600 at 95%)
2 weeks ago
newpredict predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
more

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