Will oil prices continue their southward trend and touch $ 75 ?

This question is useless without an end date. May be if we wait 5 years they will touch $75. You need to specify a window.

Appreciate the comment, the end date for the price tab is July 2008.

related bet: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_oil_prices_close_below_80_on_Friday_February_29_2008_1560/view

GET IN ON THIS NOW!!! Not a better opportunity on HubDub in my opinion! Oil AIN'T touching $75 for years to come!!!!!! Do Not Bet on this at your own risk :-D

great sales pitch lucidstates :-D reminds me of those get rich ponzie schemes.

This one needs an end date!!

Please specify: Which oil brand? Which market?

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 11:59pm PST (23 weeks)
Hope the brand/market is determined here http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
nymex crude, brent spot, cushing spot. I just learned something here.
thanks doctor -

shadowfax, I don't know what your deal is dude. I am simply pointing out an obvious fact that betting NO on this question is a no duh. Not some get rich quick scheme and besides, this is fake hubdub money and there's no prizes anyway, so why should it matter to you? Afterall, if anyone "gets rich quick" in this game, it means nada, zilch, zero in real life, so umm yeah. Now my point was and still is, OIL is now at $100 / barrel again (02-19-08), so my previous comment still stands, this is an obvious WINNER of a NO bet, oil is not going back to $75 for years, trust me on that. BTW, if you don't want to make any hubdub dollars, then ignore my "sales pitch" and move on. Your loss man :-D And when I wrote that comment, oil was around $89 / barrel, now it's $100, I guess I'm pretty dumb then huh?

I´m afraid Oil will never again be available for $75 / barrel....

Sure it will, when we don't need it anymore ;)

If it was only for combustion engines I would agree with you.
The problem is that Oil is needed for various products such as medication, synthetics, chemical industry etc.
Therefore Oil will always be needed and the last gallon will be worth millions.
Hmmm.... maybe I should stash away some gallons in the basement. ;)

True, we don't need oil only for engines. But oil as an energy source causes most of the demand and its consumption. Thatfor oil prices would drop to a level which is adequate for it's other usages :)

wow, lucidstates, did you read me wrong. I was only supporting your comments and guess I just thought you were being humourous. sorry if I offended you. I know oil will go north, that was my fun. I took your comment wrong. thought you were being playful. again, regretts if it was misconstued.
glad to see oil closed over 100 today. that was neat.

mis-construed I meant. was alotta fun and exciting to see oil close barely above 100 today. nice profit for those who saw that coming. now for the dow closing up.

shadowfax, dude I am sooooo sorry man... I read it and immediately reacted, very wrong of me man, I am very sorry. Now rereading yoru comment I see that I totalllly red you wrong, dude I hope you don't think me an jerk or anything. I'm sorry again. Oil is now at $100.40, wooohooooo :-D I am excited and oh man, the Dow is off and running now, up between 112 - 124 on the day, at around 12,440 - 12,455 ... Awesome! Thanks for correcting me shadowfax, I will focus going forward on not reacting right away, that was wrong and I made an idiot of myself ... Thanks :-)

Breaking News....... Crude Oil just closed at an all time record high of $100.74 / barrel!!! Wow what a day :-D

Thanks lucid for your kind response. I understand your initial reaction if taken literal (I get flak for my silly loose tangent comments), I will read and post more carefully as well.
I really appreciate your informed comments & interesting insight into the markets.

Still trying to figure out if this covers all PETROLEUM ... and what source is definitive.
For example, the source quoted above, <http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ > QUOTES the Nymex Crude Future at:

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
99.59 -.11 -.11 05:52

but the actual Nymex Board quotes:


Last Open Open High Low Most Change
High Low Recent
Settle
April 2008 99.52 n/a 100.01 100.33 99.24 99.70 -0.18

-- a difference of .07 in reporting. -- which as many people know, could be the difference between a big "win" and a "lose" (yesterday's margin between "win/lose" was .74).

formatting didn't hold up in above post so need to compare
<http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ > to <http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx>
[Bloomberg quotes nymex, so it would seem that nymex ought be used ...]

Appreciate all the interesting as well insightful comments on the query. Clarifying some issues raised by my friends;
1. The benchmark price is Nymex, and
2. The target end date for the query is 31st July 2008.

I can very well understand the expression of surprise by some friends on this reportedly bizarre question, but let me reason why I think otherwise. Look at the events which influence the oil prices;
• U.S. crude oil inventories rise by 4.2 mln barrels last week
• Gasoline stockpiles increased 1.1 million barrels, 14-year high of 230.3 million barrels last week.
• In addition U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds crude oil of about 6.983 million barrels.
• US employment falls, fresh sign of possible recession
• Fed cuts growth forecast as US inflation and jobless level rise

Adjusted for inflation in January 2008 dollars the 1979 $38 peak is the equivalent of paying $104.06 today. 1979 peak was on account of demand exceeding the supply. This price level is absolutely unrealistic in the present context. There is no dearth of supply however the demand for crude oil is shrinking owing to economic reasons. The first quarter results and acknowledgement of recession by US will trigger the predicted fall in crude oil prices. Lets wait and watch.

This question will be settled according to the standard U.S. measure of oil price (WTI). This is reported by NYMEX http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx, and is also shown under "WTI Crude Future" on Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html. Obviously when using the NYMEX site it is the earliest contract still open that is counted, currently April 2008, but this progresses with time.

ganesh, I understand what your point is concerning inventories, historic reasons for rises, etc, etc., however, I of course must disagree (hehe surprise surprise) but seriously, I really believe that the current oil run up has nothing to do with history, hasnothing to actually do with demand, nothing to do with recession, or any other number of "legitimate" reasons for this absurdly high oil price we saw last week ($100.74). I was born 2 years after the all time peak in 1979, and my parents tell me of gasoline lines running for miles from a gas station because there was such a massive panic to obtain gas, and the prices were so high that American's were so dumb founded that they bought even more (if they could) because they believed it'd be up even more soon. So my point is, back in 1979, there was somewhat legit reasons for a high oil price, aka known as panic buying, however, in todays market, it only has to do with 2 things: 1. GREED ... 2. Publicity ... So, the first one, I say greed because the people trading oil, the companies pumping / drilling oil, the governments controlling oil output, and people worldwide appetites for oil has lead to a HUGE run up since Bushy-Boy took office, and all the people I just mentioned have witnessed a historical run up in oil prices and they know that they can make oil worth whatever they choose and people will buy it, plan and simple, however, in order to make it look like "they" are not responsible, they take advantage of a hype drunk media outlets to tell the world that there is everything from an oil shortage, to "oh my, a possible terrorist attack somewhere at sometime in the universe" or a piddly little nobody like "Hugo Chavez threatens to CUT America off!" Oh OUCH, we would be sooooo harmed if lil' Hugo throws a hissy and we won't be able to drive Hummers anymore! Do you see what I mean? This is just like the bubble we saw in tech stocks 8 years ago, when there was no real legit reason to pay 100 - 400 times earnings for crappy companies that had never made a red cent of profit, yet what hapened? American's got all caught up in the hype from the media which was fed by a GREEDY Wall Street, lax government oversight, and a public fearing that if they didn't get in right away, they'd be the only non rich American's left. ... So, I'll some it up now. Oil is a money machine for governments, drillers, and traders with the help of an over caffeinated hype drunk media that craves sensational "news" and this leads to a continual rise in oil prices. Will this last forever? Nope, but it certainly will last through this year and maybe some of next year at least. Remember, we are heading into the summer driving season, which historically means higher gas prices. I hope that I have explained my current understanding of the oil markets, I may be dead wrong, and I sincerely hope that I am because I don't wanna pay $4.50 / gallon, but I doubt that I will be blessed by big oil this summer, instead I believe that they and lil' Chavez are more delighted in my paying them my extra cash instead of me going to a movie :-D

Lucid,
Appreciate your plain speak but disagree with your cynicism. You would atleast agree on this count that it is the culture of easy money which the credit market is ( or rather was !!!!) promoting which provide the fodder to quench the greed. With the housing turmoil and overall subprime in a fix, the money will not be easy to come by. Sooner than later greed will give way to need….. Taking a leaf out of your views, when you don’t wanna shell a penny more for gas why rest of us be any different… I would rather ride a Bicycle then drive a Hummer…. When there will be no takers for the bait (Oil) then the Sultans and Comrades of trade themselves will prick the bubble…..

ganesh,
I agree with your idea of Sultans and Comrades lowering the price in order to sell a product that the world doesn't want so badly, only problem is, we're talking about OIL, and the world loves oil like it loves sex. Okay, so not THAT much, but it is addicted to oil and with all addictions, the desire to break the habit may be intense, but the pain of breaking the habit is just too much effort for a lazy addicted nation to bear. Oil is to the automobile driving, McDonalds indulging, prescription pill popping, indebted to their eyeballs American, as Oil Revenues is to the Saudi Royal Family, Hugo "hissy-fit" Chavez, Exxon Mobil, billionaires. My point may sound cynical, but have you seen your neighbor lately? Your neighbor is most likely overweight, which means they are not interested in riding a bicycle to work and they probably own an suv or some other gas guzzler. I am an American, I own a Chrysler New Yorker, and I way just over 100 pounds, but I don't even wanna ride a bike to work, hehehe. So my point is this, wanting to do something is all fine and good, until one has to actually do it, and believe me, New York gets way to cold in the winter to not drive a car, summer vacation is way much fun to spend a week riding a bike from L.A. to Las Vegas. American's are lazy, so why would us, they, we fight big oil? Answer is we won't. We will complain our way all the way to the pump, grumble about the extra dime it costs now over last week, fill up our car, grumble some more and drive on.
Hehehehe, I sound sooooooo pessimistic and downer huh? I truly am not pesimistic man :-D I just know the way this country works, and it is soooo predictable! American's are soooo used to leisure and so used to financing, that until there is not a single company willing to loan us a nickel, or the world is utterly void of oil, we will continue to buy it as fast as we can.
Thus my prior prediction, no oil under $75 until sometime in 2009 or 2010, when we reallllly start feeling the pain of our excessive lifestyles when the piper comes a knockin' :-D

Update: Oil hits new record $103.05 in trading today!!! Gasoline prices hit $3.164 / gallon national average, nearing the all time mark set last May of $3.227 / gallon. Diesel hit $3.642 / gallon today as well.

Update: Oil hits new record intraday high of $105.97 / barrel ... Closes at a new closing record of $104.52 / barrel. An analyst in a research note, estimated that oil will move towards $110 - $115 / barrel during this uptrend ... Here are his comments: "Unless the dollar can stage a major recovery, fund buying ebbs, geopolitical risks ease or there is a more profound economic slowdown threat, the market's trend will likely remain up and an eventual move to the $110 to $115 price range can't be ruled out," said John Kilduff, an analyst at futures brokerage MF Global, in a research note.
Happy trading folks :-)
P.S. Have you seen your gas pump prices lately? Here in Seattle, I am already paying nearly $0.27 / gallon more then I was in February! I see no end for several months to these high pump prices. $4+ / gallon here we come :-(

very thought provoking dialog here. I appreciate the time and energy with the posts.

New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil says Goldman Sachs' projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices.
(MarketWatch reported) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption."
"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."
Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher.
"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.
While saying it has a bullish long-term outlook, Goldman acknowledged that oil prices could correct from recent highs thus allowing Goldman to have an extreme case scenario of oil dropping absolutely no lower than $60 / barrel in their most extreme scenario, however, they maintain their outlook of $95 - $105 / barrel oil throughout the rest of calendar '08.

lucidstates

Update: Oil hits new intraday record of $106.54 / barrel and also closed at yet another all time closing high of $105.15

Update: Oil hits New All Time Record $109.72 / barrel and gasoline hit a New All Time National Average High of $3.2272 / gallon for regular unleaded. The previous all time high for gasoline was in May 2007 when it hit $3.225 / gallon ... And we aren't even half way thru March yet. BTW, gas is already over $4 for diesel up here in the Seattle / Puget Sound area :-(

Sorry, the high last May was $3.2265 :-D

Update: Light, sweet crude is currently up 35 cents to $110.27 per barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 5:30am PST or 8:30am EST.
This upwards trend is relentless! Happy gas pumping :-D

Update: Just minutes from the open, oil is now at $110.70 :-)

Hi Lucid,

While light sweet crude oil turn sour with every passing moment I concede to your argument that insatiable greed of few is causing misery to millions.... Probably I can only wish that prices settle down at a realistic level... However in this milieu the oil analysts provide some interesting insight into the surge in oil prices....

Hedge fund having to sell a particular oil contract so it does not end up receiving a tanker-load of oil...
A trader deciding it would be fun to be the first to trade oil above $100 a barrel...

So its not only the middle east crisis, Chavez grumble, Chinese demand or Korean missiles which is fuelling the prices, any tom, dick and harry can spike the oil prices.....!!!!

ganesh,

Hehehe, man I totally agree with you on this! I remember hearing about that "opportunist" guy trying to make a name for himself by trading oil above $100 / barrel, so he'd be the first in history! As you said, any tom dick or harry, and this kind was certainly that! It does show how insane this whole oil ordeal is and how utterly baseless are the reasons for such high oil prices! When some shmoe can spike it, just for publicity sake and the whole world plays along, totally sick man! It's like I said, this is not based upon "real life" concerns, but just media hype, opportunistic traders, and greedy individuals.
Man I am with ya, I totally wish it was different! I am now paying $3.559 / gallon for gas at COSTCO, and they are $0.20 / gallon cheaper then Shell. It is just insane and getting very frustrating!
Man, it is times like these that I wish I had a job that allowed me to ride a moped/scooter, hahaha, man that was the way to travel!
Back when I lived in Hawaii in 2002 - 2003, I delivered pizza for Papa John's on a moped/scooter, I only filled it up once every 2 days, it held barely over 1.2 gallons, and gas was $1.29 / gallon at the time!!! WOW, how I want THAT price back :-D
So I totally agree with you. See the reason I've said on here what I've said, is that having been watching, studying and trading stocks and options for the past almost 10 years, I've watched this stuff and whether I like it or not, this is just how it is. Wall Street is a game, a rich persons game but one that us non gazillionaires can play, but only if you learn how to play it, understand that it is in fact just a game, not take it personally, and play according to their rules, then you can make money at it. I have been very blessed to have had the freedom to truly delve into trading and study over this last decade, that I simply play it as it lays, I don't try to "change it" because that is not only impossible for a small timer like me, but it also defeats the purpose, which is first and foremost, to make money at it.

Well, thank you for the ongoing dialog. I hope that we will all see lower energy prices someday, but until that time, try to drive less :-P

God Bless,

lucidstates

Cheney embarks on middle east trip to address our concern !!!!! It will be interesting to see how he manages his personal interest (Halliburton & Co.!!!!) against rising concern over oil prices....

While building on the forward contract at the current prices, I expect unwinding of futures position by key players (read Cheney & Co.). Under these circumstances it will be a good idea for lesser mortals, playing around the fringe of Commodity Market, to go short on April contract.

Ganesh,

Dude you soooooo called it man! 3 days ago you said it would come down and you were DEAD ON!!! It has plunged over 10% since then, it was at a high of nearly $112 / barrel and today it dropped below $100! Today it hit an intraday low of $98.65 and closed at $101.84.

Gooooood job on the correct call ganesh!

lucidstates

Lucid,

Still your arguments hold good... Greed reign over economic fundamentals!!!

For a moment Bernanke might have succeeded in spoking the oil cartel greed, in the medium to long term the oil prices are set to breach new peaks... As dollar continues its downward spiral and fresh skeletons tumble out of Subprime market, probably now one can think of going long on oil futures, May contract will be a safer bet.....

Ganesh

ganesh,

Truthfully man, I wish I was wrong on all this! I hate, hate, hate our skyrocketing gasoline prices, our cost of goods going up, our falling US dollar, our falling housing prices, etc, etc.
And yes, you are right, going long on oil is a safe bet I think too. I just wish I coulda bought a zillian barrels back before Bushy-Boy took office, back when $28 was normal or when $38 was outrageously high! Hahaha, we can always dream of the days when gas was under a buck a gallon, HA, not coming back for a looooong, loooooooooong, time, if ever that is :-P

A report came out today from OPEC's President, and this is an excerpt from it:
"Over the weekend, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said oil prices would range between $80 and $110 a barrel for the rest of 2008, according to Reuters."
Isn't it funny how one of the guys WHO CONTROLS OIL OUTPUT, can just so simply say as a matter of fact, oh yes, Oil will be between $80 and $110. Like it's no biggy at all ... Mann, that is just telling us all that "Hey look, you WILL pay this price for the next 12 months." I mean come on, he controls the output, so of course when he says this, it is said like he's guessing, but he's Not, he's telling us how much HE expects to receive for the countries that OPEC represent.
Oh well, I can't do anything about it, except drive only when necessary.

lucidstates

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