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Created Fri 28th Mar 11:45pm PDT by orlin
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Will the Democratic Party's presidential nominating contest be decided by 1 July?

Settled as Yes

http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/

IT'S OVER!!!!!!

Background:

US Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean has said he would like the party's presidential nominating contest decided by 1 July to avoid bitter in-fighting.
Mr Dean told US network ABC he did not want rivalry between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to "degenerate into a big fight at the convention" in August.
But the battle for the presidential nomination seems set to continue all the way to the party's national convention in late August.
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
91%
No
9%
Activity: H$158,798
Settled as Yes on Tue 3rd Jun 6:21pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If a clear "presumptive nominee" has been chosen that would count as "decided." If by July it is clear in the media who will be the nominee the markets settles as a yes.

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Tue 3rd Jun 6:21pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Mar 11:45pm PDT by orlin
Clarified Wed 2nd Apr 5:15pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: If a clear "presumptive nominee" has been chosen that would count as "decided." If by July it is clear in the media who will be the nominee the markets settles as a yes. Simply if one of the nominees dropsout.
Edited Wed 2nd Apr 5:15pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 3rd Jun 6:04pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 3rd Jun 6:04pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Obama is the presumptive nominee.

http://www.cnn.com/ (market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 3rd Jun 6:21pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/

IT'S OVER!!!!!!
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If a clear "presumptive nominee" has been chosen that would count as "decided." If by July it is clear in the media who will be the nominee the markets settles as a yes. ... read all

 

Predictions (435)

435 predictions

13 weeks ago
jamalpeter predicted No (H$100 at 8%)
13 weeks ago
derekkraan predicted No (H$20 at 7%)
13 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$50 at 13%)
13 weeks ago
azgalloway predicted No (H$100 at 12%)
13 weeks ago
derekkraan predicted Yes (H$100 at 88%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 tarpash
What is the definition of "decided" in this question? Technically the Republicans haven't "decided" to nominate McCain until the convention, but yet for all intents and purposes he is the presumptive nominee. There should be some clarification in the wake of the Spitzer market scandals.
posted 22 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
If a clear "presumptive nominee" has been chosen that would count as "decided." If by July it is clear in the media who will be the nominee the markets settles as a yes. Simply if one of the nominees dropsout.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 22 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
good luck to all who have bet on this one. now the media decides who the nominee is according to the astute polictal admin ryan. if thats who decides settle it now. the media has said no way hillary can catch obama. the super delegates will decide the nominee...when they do that is anybody's guess. 77% say no.(as of april 13) so when ryan settles as yes cause the media said obama has won, then maybe people will finally rise up and get something done about ryan's settlements.
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 theonecalledmichael
Well, it only takes 51%, so let's ask Ryan to settle based on the "99.9% rule"
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 theonecalledmichael
(see patrick swayze death question, which settled under this rule 4 days early at just under 98%)
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 ryanj[Admin]
Can't we all be friends?

Seriously though the market isn't being settled by political pundits from CNN. It is being settled like markets on McCain had been settled. Once it was clear there was no way for Huckabee to gain the nomination, McCain was titled the nominee.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 20 weeks ago
  7 ryanb37
I agree with ryan on this one
posted 17 weeks ago
  8 Erik
That's the point, Ryan. The way that the Democrat party awards delegates selected by primaries and caucuses (cauci? sp), coupled with the super-delegates that are not required to declare before the vote at the convention, this cannot be "clear" until the convention.
posted 17 weeks ago
  9 theonecalledmichael
I think it will be clear... just spoke to a SD, and the meeting is on for next week... we will be able to settle by June 10... if not sooner....
posted 14 weeks ago
  10 fingers_of_fury
"IT'S OVER!!!!!!" ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Ohhh.... really?
posted 13 weeks ago

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