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Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be higher or lower at the end of the year?

Current forecast: Close Down (95% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Close Down with a probability of 95% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Will the current economic instability last throughout the year or will we see a turn around that will send the DJIA upwards?


Settlement details: Settlement is based on whether the closing price on the last day of trading this year will be higher than the opening price on the 2nd of January 2008 of 13,261.82. Will be settled as reported by Bloomberg.com

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Close Up
5%
Close Down
95%
Activity: H$36,699
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 8pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Close Up: 30%, Close Down: 70%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 1:25am PST by andrew
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:54pm PST by andrew

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 8pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (70)

70 predictions

4 days ago
dragon01 predicted Close Up (H$20 at 6%)
3 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted Close Up (H$10 at 5%)
5 weeks ago
carnac predicted Close Down (H$50 at 86%)
5 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted Close Down (H$500 at 85%)
5 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted Close Down (H$100 at 76%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 nomadwolf
Higher or lower than what value? Jan 1 or another point in time?
posted 42 weeks ago
"Settlement rules: Settlement is based on whether the closing price on the last day of trading this year will be higher than the opening price on the 2nd of January 2008 of 13,261.82. Will be settled as reported by Bloomberg.com"

I don't know if it will recover that much, but today sure is nice to see!
posted 35 weeks ago

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