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Will the International Atomic Energy Agency find the bombed Syrian reactor was not nuclear afterall?

Hubdub users say: No (59% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 59% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Last week, Washington released intelligence alleging Syria had built a nuclear reactor with North Korean help before an Israeli air strike destroyed the facility on Sept. 6.

The Syrian site Israel bombed in September was not part of a nuclear weapons programme, but was a military facility under construction, President Bashar al-Assad said in remarks published on Sunday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday it would investigate US claims that Syria had tried to build a nuclear reactor with North Korean help.

Full Story: http://therealnews.com/web/index.php?thisdataswitch=0&thisid=1411&thisview=item
 
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Yes
41%
No
59%
Activity: H$24,243
Open question (no suspend date)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Apr 1:20am PDT by mork[Power User]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
3 days ago
No user imagehuskerfan predicted No (H$100)
3 days ago
No user imagemaroof predicted Yes (H$100)
1 week ago
No user imagemorosofos predicted No (H$80)
1 week ago
canucksfan9 predicted No (H$20)
1 week ago
No user imagekgholderman predicted Yes (H$20)
2 weeks ago
No user imagel_one predicted Yes (H$20)
2 weeks ago
pepe predicted Yes (H$50)
3 weeks ago
pawnmowerman predicted No (H$100)
3 weeks ago
No user imagemorosofos predicted Yes (H$265)
3 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted No (H$500)
  1 randburg
A Great Question with great history and links!

But be sure to read the question fully and be careful of the "opposites":

YES = It was NOT A NUCLEAR PLANT

NO = Yes it was A NUCLEAR PLANT
posted 11 weeks ago
Nice observations Randburg ... I bet YES :-D
posted 11 weeks ago
Mork thanks for continual great questions dude :-D
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
Don't you never use no double negation :-P
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
Thank You guys
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 randburg
I agree with lucid: YES sounds about right...
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
It's been bulldozed.
IAEA says they should know in a few weeks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/11/AR2008051102029.html
posted 9 weeks ago
a few weeks minus one week
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 mork[Power User]
It is a low-key endeavor: Only four International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors will participate in the three-day project starting Sunday, and both Damascus and the U.N. agency have pulled down the blinds on news media seeking to report on the trip, keeping all details secret.

http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/06/21/1598365-un-inspectors-face-tough-job-in-syria
posted 4 weeks ago
  11 mork[Power User]
VIENNA, June 26--International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have praised Syria for cooperation in a probe into an alleged nuclear site, saying the investigation is off to "a good start".
After four days in Syria on his return to Vienna, IAEA deputy director general Olli Heinonen told reporters Wednesday that inspectors were able to take extensive test samples at the site.
However, Heinonen said it was "too early" to draw conclusions about the nature of the site, which Syria says "was an ordinary military building."
http://www.alalam.ir/english/en-NewsPage.asp?newsid=032030120080626082855
posted 3 weeks ago
  12 mork[Power User]
VIENNA, June 26--International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have praised Syria for cooperation in a probe into an alleged nuclear site, saying the investigation is off to "a good start".
After four days in Syria on his return to Vienna, IAEA deputy director general Olli Heinonen told reporters Wednesday that inspectors were able to take extensive test samples at the site.
However, Heinonen said it was "too early" to draw conclusions about the nature of the site, which Syria says "was an ordinary military building."
http://www.alalam.ir/english/en-NewsPage.asp?newsid=032030120080626082855
posted 3 weeks ago
  13 mork[Power User]
oops
posted 3 weeks ago
dot eye are, hmmmmmmmmmm.

I wonder if "impartial" means not favoring an I.E.D. over a scimitar to the head on video.
posted 2 weeks ago

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