Created Tue 15th Apr 6:19pm PDT by
neverlupus
All questions » Science » Scientific Discoveries » 
Will the Large Hadron Collider be functional and producing data by October 1st, 2008?
Current forecast: 21% chance
4%
4%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 21% likely to happen (up 4% in last 1 day)
As the May start date for the LHC in approaches, now is a good time to reflect on it's past and future. It has been delayed numerous times in the past 12 years of construction, faces problems associated with controlling the huge amount of energy needed to accelerate the proton beams, and is facing lawsuits barring it's start up. Will the LHC fire up and produce data in May, or will it be delayed again?
Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.
Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$81,268
Question suspends in 4 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.
Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 75%
Action history:
Created Tue 15th Apr 6:19pm PDT by
neverlupus
Suspended Sun 10th Aug 3:21pm PDT by
newswrangler
: Flagged by supser user: Suspended until market can be clarified.
Unsuspended Tue 12th Aug 3:40am PDT by
tisha
: Market has been clarified
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.... read all
Predictions (134)
134 predictions
Comments (16)
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score: 10
New Scientist 2 days ago
speed of light and smash them head-on 600 million times a second. The most distinctive feature of the Large Hadron Collider, though, is its temperature. At 1.9 kelvin - a smidgen above absolute zero - the LHC is the coldest ring in the universe, unless
score: 10
AndhraNews.net 3 days ago
marking the first time particle tracks have been reconstructed from a man-made event generated by the collider. The LHC, located under the Franco-Swiss border near Geneva, Switzerland, is the world's largest and the highest-energy particle accelerator.
score: 10
Science Daily 3 days ago
of a few particles travelled down the transfer line from the Super Proton Synchrotron (SPS) accelerator to the LHC. After a period of optimization, one bunch was kicked up from the transfer line into the LHC beam pipe and steered counter-clockwise about
score: 10
PhysOrg.com 3 days ago
First particles observed in Large Hadron Collider Physics / Physics Click here to enlarge image (PhysOrg.com) -- Glasgow scientists, working at CERN, have observed the first particles in the Large Hadron Collider during preliminary tests
score: 10
StreetInsider 4 days ago
LHC Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LHCG) announced today that its Audit Committee has selected KPMG LLP to serve as LHC Group's independent registered public...






Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
Obviously, before it is tuned in, the Hadron will be "functioning" in the sense of accelerating beams, and maybe colliding them somewhere or other, and it will be "producing data" in the form of "noise" (sensors that indicate off-target collisions), but that doesn't satisfy the requirement of the question, which is, When will the Hadron be up and running (not just up and limping). Right?
Merely "throwing the switch" on Sept. 10 doesn't count, any more than cutting the ribbon on a bridge at an official bridge-opening ceremony doesn't count if the bridge won't be opened for traffic for another month
An additional point of uncertainty is the power level involved: is the low-power initial level OK, or is the full-power level (10 times stronger) required? (See today's TopNews story for the exact levels.)
"If the LHC gets beam in September (which probably means January given their performance so far) that means first collisions will happen in the summer of 2009 (realistically - I am no longer considering CERN's BS schedules). That means it will take until winter 2009 to get up to 5 tev."
"The initial particle beams are due for injection in August 2008,[2] the first attempt to circulate beam through the entire LHC is scheduled for September 10, 2008,[3] and the first high-energy collisions are planned to take place after the LHC is officially unveiled, on October 21, 2008.[4]
When activated, it is theorized that the collider will produce the elusive Higgs boson ..."
IOW, the collider is not scheduled to produce data until three weeks after Oct. 1.
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/emergingtech/0,1000000183,39458691,00.htm?r=1
A date has finally been announced for the switching on of the world's most powerful particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider.
The LHC is located in a 27km-long circular tunnel that lies beneath the Franco-Swiss border. The first attempt to circulate a beam of particles around the tunnel will take place on 10 September, according to a Thursday statement by the LHC's builders, the European Organization for Nuclear Research (Cern). This event will follow a long commissioning process that has seen the structure cooled down to 1.9° above absolute zero (-271°C).
"Last week, CERN announced that the date for this switch-on will be 10 September, with collisions between counter-rotating beams planned for late October."
Here's the link:
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/fundamentals/quantum-world/mg19926693.200-first-successful-test-of-most-powerful-accelerator.html?feedId=quantum-world_rss20
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/earth/2008/08/21/scilhc121.xml
Once the individual detectors around the LHC are ready (the "eyes" that study the effects of collisions between particles), further injection tests will attempt to ensure two counter-rotating proton beams circulate throughout the machine.
Capturing the remnants of high energy collisions between these beams will then become possible, setting the stage for the LHC to potentially rewrite the laws of physics as we know them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/02/06/scitime106.xml
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