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Will the Large Hadron Collider be functional and producing data by October 1st, 2008?

Current forecast: 21% chance 4%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 21% likely to happen (up 4% in last 1 day)

As the May start date for the LHC in approaches, now is a good time to reflect on it's past and future. It has been delayed numerous times in the past 12 years of construction, faces problems associated with controlling the huge amount of energy needed to accelerate the proton beams, and is facing lawsuits barring it's start up. Will the LHC fire up and produce data in May, or will it be delayed again?

Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.
 
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Yes
21%
No
79%
Activity: H$81,268
Question suspends in 4 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Tue 15th Apr 6:19pm PDT by neverlupus
Suspended Sun 10th Aug 3:21pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by supser user: Suspended until market can be clarified.
Unsuspended Tue 12th Aug 3:40am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Market has been clarified
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.... read all

 

Predictions (134)

134 predictions

15 hours ago
cocoy predicted No (H$100 at 79%)
4 days ago
bedlam predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
4 days ago
oafarivar predicted Yes (H$50 at 16%)
4 days ago
tkohler predicted Yes (H$100 at 17%)
5 days ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,000 at 85%)
more

Comments (16)

  1 owl1
Just curious, why ask if it will be up in May and really mean Oct?
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
Think the creators just saying that a delay would mean it wouldn't start up in May, meaning it might start up later in the year.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 mork[Power User]
http://www.lhcountdown.com/?p=1
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 rogerkni
"Functional and producing data" is a phrase with some room for interpretation. By "functional," I assume it is implied that collisions are being produced between the two beams, and by "producing data" I assume it is implied that the collision points are occurring at the photographic data-collection plates. This is what every other functioning, data-producing collider does.

Obviously, before it is tuned in, the Hadron will be "functioning" in the sense of accelerating beams, and maybe colliding them somewhere or other, and it will be "producing data" in the form of "noise" (sensors that indicate off-target collisions), but that doesn't satisfy the requirement of the question, which is, When will the Hadron be up and running (not just up and limping). Right?

Merely "throwing the switch" on Sept. 10 doesn't count, any more than cutting the ribbon on a bridge at an official bridge-opening ceremony doesn't count if the bridge won't be opened for traffic for another month

An additional point of uncertainty is the power level involved: is the low-power initial level OK, or is the full-power level (10 times stronger) required? (See today's TopNews story for the exact levels.)
posted 3 weeks ago
  5 rogerkni
PS: Here's an analogy. Suppose an existing collider had to be shut down for repairs (due to an earthquake that had misaligned its magnets, say). It would be considered to be "down for repairs." If a reporter asked the operator, "When will the collider be functioning and producing data?" he would be asking, in effect, "When will the collider be back to normal?" It would be disingenuous for the operator to reply, "Tomorrow," if all he meant was that the collider would be firing beams and collecting data on how far those beams missed their proper collision point.
posted 3 weeks ago
  6 rogerkni
PS: A commenter named "Andreicio" appended this to today's physicsweb story (see the link in the sidebar):

"If the LHC gets beam in September (which probably means January given their performance so far) that means first collisions will happen in the summer of 2009 (realistically - I am no longer considering CERN's BS schedules). That means it will take until winter 2009 to get up to 5 tev."
posted 3 weeks ago
  7 rogerkni
PPS: I view the "producing data" phrase as meaning "producing scientific data," not just "producing diagnostic data" that would only be useful for callibrating the gadget.
posted 3 weeks ago
  8 rogerkni
Here's what Wikipedia's entry for "Large Hadron Collider" says, at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider :

"The initial particle beams are due for injection in August 2008,[2] the first attempt to circulate beam through the entire LHC is scheduled for September 10, 2008,[3] and the first high-energy collisions are planned to take place after the LHC is officially unveiled, on October 21, 2008.[4]

When activated, it is theorized that the collider will produce the elusive Higgs boson ...
"

IOW, the collider is not scheduled to produce data until three weeks after Oct. 1.
posted 3 weeks ago
  9 rogerkni
PS: Another way to put it would be to say that a high-energy collider isn't functioning and producing data until "high-energy collisions" are taking place. Which won't be until Oct. 21. (At the earliest.)
posted 2 weeks ago
  10 tisha[Admin]
Clarification - 'producing data' means that mainstream media sources must report that high-energy collisions have occurred.
posted 2 weeks ago
  11 chatarra
9-10-2008 - Date set for Large Hadron Collider launch
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/emergingtech/0,1000000183,39458691,00.htm?r=1

A date has finally been announced for the switching on of the world's most powerful particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider.

The LHC is located in a 27km-long circular tunnel that lies beneath the Franco-Swiss border. The first attempt to circulate a beam of particles around the tunnel will take place on 10 September, according to a Thursday statement by the LHC's builders, the European Organization for Nuclear Research (Cern). This event will follow a long commissioning process that has seen the structure cooled down to 1.9° above absolute zero (-271°C).
posted 2 weeks ago
  12 rogerkni
Wikipedia was already aware of this switch-on date: see item 8 above. This announcement is just a confirmation of their schedule. Also note that, according to Wikipedia, "the first high-energy collisions are planned to take place after the LHC is officially unveiled, on October 21, 2008." That's what this question is about: the date that high-energy collisions occur. (See clarification.)
posted 2 weeks ago
  13 rogerkni
Here's a quote from New Scientist, Aug 13, 2008, p. 4:
"Last week, CERN announced that the date for this switch-on will be 10 September, with collisions between counter-rotating beams planned for late October."

Here's the link:
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/fundamentals/quantum-world/mg19926693.200-first-successful-test-of-most-powerful-accelerator.html?feedId=quantum-world_rss20
posted 2 weeks ago
  14 chatarra
Thanks for your clarification. I guess I thought that once beams from any direction started moving, it would produce some sort of data and this would be settled as yes.
posted 2 weeks ago
  15 chatarra
This is getting exciting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/earth/2008/08/21/scilhc121.xml
Once the individual detectors around the LHC are ready (the "eyes" that study the effects of collisions between particles), further injection tests will attempt to ensure two counter-rotating proton beams circulate throughout the machine.

Capturing the remnants of high energy collisions between these beams will then become possible, setting the stage for the LHC to potentially rewrite the laws of physics as we know them.
posted 5 days ago
  16 chatarra
And at times a bit far-fetched:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/02/06/scitime106.xml
Time travelers from the future 'could be here in weeks'
Ever since he unveiled this idea in 1949, eminent physicists have argued against time travel because it undermines ideas of cause and effect to create paradoxes: a time traveller could go back to kill his grandfather so that he is never born in the first place.
posted 5 days ago

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