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Will the Phoenix Mars Lander safely land on Mars, on May 25, 2008?

Settled as Yes

Many of the Mars probes crashed at landing. The last one was Beagle 2 on Dec 25, 2003.
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Yes
81%
No
19%
Activity: H$332,688
Settled as Yes on Mon 26th May 7:46am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 25th May 5:35pm PDT

Settlement date: Mon 26th May 7:46am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 25th May 5:35pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 80%

Action history:

Created Sun 2nd Mar 5:21am PST by orlin
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:34pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Sun 25th May 4:08pm PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 4:08pm PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: possible mix up with times.. suspending now just in case (market suspended)
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 5:02pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
Winning prediction = "Yes"

"Mission controllers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California have confirmed that Phoenix has landed on the Red Planet. The first images from the lander could come later tonight..."

<http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/main/>
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 5:20pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: it landed, but we still don't know if it is safe... even so, i lost my rear end on this one....cnn reported a successful landing, so i concede....
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 7:31pm PDT by curios: Nasa officials celebrate Mars landing
Nasa engineers celebrate return to Mars
May 26, 2008 12:56 AM
Mission controllers cheered the safe touchdown of their Phoenix Mars probe at the north pole of the red planet in the early hours of this morning. The spacecraft made what appears to have been a flawless landing in the Martian Arctic at 00.54 BST.

Suspended Sun 25th May 8:26pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 8:26pm PDT by skipper[Power User]: It's a bird, It's a plane, It's MARS LANDER....
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,358027,00.html (market suspended)
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 11:26pm PDT by elly: YES!YES!YES!
http://spaceflightnow.com/
Settlement requested Mon 26th May 12:45am PDT by elly: Sorry, but what kind of news are you waithing for to settle this case?
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/main/
Settlement requested Mon 26th May 12:47am PDT by curios: this is the second request for settlement
wake up its on all the news programes that a safe landing was made
regards
Settlement requested Mon 26th May 2:26am PDT by syzslack: it did land safty
Settled as 'Yes' Mon 26th May 7:46am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Yes, the Mars Lander has landed safely. Very sorry for the delay in settlement.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
8 weeks ago
gadget666 predicted Yes (H$200)
8 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$100)
8 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$20)
8 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Power User] predicted Yes (H$1,500)
8 weeks ago
syzslack predicted Yes (H$2)
8 weeks ago
myunion predicted No (H$20)
8 weeks ago
vinicius predicted No (H$80)
8 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Yes (H$500)
8 weeks ago
schenz predicted Yes (H$39)
8 weeks ago
valornhonor predicted No (H$24)
Watch this video if you want a multimedia explanation of what's at stake: "Se7en Minutes of Terror"
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/videos/phoenix/phx20080327/
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 paulcroft
I hope it makes it ...but I am betting on NO because of the odds and the fact that Mars landings have not been all that successful!
posted 9 weeks ago
i'm betting "no" because there is just no money to be made on "yes"
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 markov
paulcrift & theonecalledmichael have the numbers right. I, too, am hoping for the best but wagering on the worst. Successful Martian landings have been substantially below 95% AND there is no $ to be made at this point on a yes.
posted 8 weeks ago
  5 chatarra
@JamalPeter: What a great video! Lucky for me, I placed my bets before watching it. The mission seems so difficult (slowing from 12,500 mph to an unmanned soft landing) that I might not have bet for a positive outcome.

Here's to wishing mission control in Houston and the Mars lander, the very best of luck today.
posted 8 weeks ago
  6 markov
They are using the same landing technology that was used on a previous mission that suffered a catastrophic landing.
posted 8 weeks ago
this really needs to be solved by 7:00 Eastern DAYLIGHT TIME, not standard time.... can we please fix this daylight time thing...
posted 8 weeks ago
Suspended this just to make sure there were no mix ups with daylight/standard time although I think it would have been ok. We should know what happened in an hour or so. (Fingers crossed!)
posted 8 weeks ago
sorry, i freak out a little when i don't know if the time is correct, it did say PST, not PDT... i'm ok now...must have more zoloft.....
posted 8 weeks ago
  10 sdchargers
Looks like it is a successful landing.
posted 8 weeks ago
bye bye 4500H$ on failure, hello life on mars!
posted 8 weeks ago
(bayoubear has a question on the success of the mission....Again, not much to be made on one of the outcomes...)
posted 8 weeks ago
bayoubear does not, I do!! Of course I could see how you could get a motorcycle confused with my cute little puppies... wait, I don't get it...

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_NASAs_Mars_Phoenix_lander_find_life_on_Mars_5358/view
posted 8 weeks ago
sorry, jenni, must've looked at recent bets again....and i call the president an idiot! i would say it won't happen again, but it will.

JENNI has the question on the outcome of this mission....
posted 8 weeks ago
  15 scott
Just remember that until it works it wasnt sucessful. Wait a day before settling.
posted 8 weeks ago
well, i said the same thing to the admins in a settlement request... i lost h$4500 if the damn thing is ok... but, i think it is ok... if it doesn't light up, then we have to fight about why? was it the landing, the design, the programming.... i'd rather just say the damn thing landed safely than have that argument... the fact that we know it landed: it's telling us: means that it landed safely... it was worth the risk, until i lost..... now i'm betting on the damn thing to find evidence of life on mars.... an old Bowie fan, can't help it....not to mention carl sagan....
posted 8 weeks ago
First photos from Mars are in ...

<http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/229952main_S_000EFF_CYL_SR10CA8_R888M1.jpg>

posted 8 weeks ago

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