Will the U.S. be in an official economic recession by the summer of 08?

The Asian markets dropped today, we are getting closer and closer to not only a economic problem in the U.S. but in the world.

Would summer be defined as ending on August 31st or September 21st, 2008 in the Northern Hemisphere? What if some Australian or Brazilian guy goes insane with rage when the absolutely imminent recession kicks in by or not by HIS summer and he loses his entire HubDub fortune?

nice comment markov. well put and needs to be clarified.
c'mon folks lets cause some hubub about HD by going here www.hubdubforum.com

I should've looked at details closer. this contest ends 11:59 21 June.

The settlement details just say predictions won't be accepted after June 21st. I don't know if that means that is the last date by which the news of an official recession is put forth. The government does not report recessions when they begin but rather one to several months after the recession is underway since they have to compile and analyze the data. Frankly, I think a recession has already begun but by definition a recession isn't officially a recession until negative growth (decline in GDP) has occurred for two consecutive quarters. If that is the case a recession that began in January wouldn't be official until the end of June and probably wouldn't be reported officially until August.

On my profile it says 19 weeks to go....lets say thats 5 months. A recession is 2 consective quarters of negative growth. The last quarter of 2007 growth was .%6. Thats small but not negative, so theres no way the economy will be in recession in 19 weeks...correct? So shouldn't the question be settled now?

When is "by the summer" is that the end of the summer or the beginning or just during the summer?

dieseldog is right. it ought to be settled now. an official recession is 2+ quarters of negative growth.

Hmmm... Summer ends in a couple of weeks... Should bet heavily then maintain that image of an insane Aussie.. 8:[

You are so wrong. Recessions are judged AFTER the fact. We could be in one now already and the numbers would show it later. The prior economic numbers also are subject to adjustment.

I'm a professional trader. Don't get me started.

"A recession is 2 consec[u]tive quarters of negative growth. The last quarter of 2007 growth was .%6. Thats small but not negative, so theres no way the economy will be in recession in 19 weeks...correct?"

dieseldog isnt just making this up. any recession story u read says the same thing.

however, warren buffet says otherwise: http://moneynews.newsmax.com/money/archives/articles/2008/3/3/084049.cfm?s=mnh
"Buffett said that 'from a common-sense standpoint right now, we're in a recession,'"

Buffett: US Essentially in Recession

I think that qualifies... Buffett is the most respected investor on the planet.

but how do u get around there being no negative growth numbers yet?

I'm sorry but saying that we're in a recession doesn't make it an actual recession. There must be actual quantifiable negative growth based upon market indexes. I believe that more disruption is caused to the market by naysayers that claim something is there when it actually isn't. (The Chicken Little effect.) If one looks at the Dow Jones index, we're actually in the same place we were last year at this time.

i agree that words mean things and that recession means "two quarters of negative...". but not all industries are still reporting positive numbers. we all know about the home construction crisis, but my industry (tech) is also feeling it. my numbers from the first quarter of this year compared with last year are down a whopping 88%! never in my nearly 10 years of self-employment have things dropped off so suddenly. but until there are enough sagging industries to bring the mean numbers to negative territory, i dont see how anyone can call it a recession...yet.

Umm, Just thought I'd point out that a lot of experts are in fact saying that we are in recession now, like, technically, so should the question be settled?

This question will not be able to be settled until the numbers for the 2nd quarter are out. It says "official economic recession". This would clearly indicate that the numbers would have to be negative for the 1st and 2nd Quarter for this question to settle yes. While betting may cease in June, the date won't be in until afterwards to settle this.

Regarding certain industries being in recession, or Buffet saying so, certainly we are in what we commonly call a recession, whether it is "official" or not. But that is what the question asks.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080320/usa_economy.html?.v=1

"I'm a professional trader. Don't get me started."

I'm an NBA player... see how easy that is?

I know there are some real traders on hubdub but seriously, that doesn't mean you can redefine words.

"A decline in business activity. Often defined as two consecutive quarters with a real fall in gross national production.
www.sterlingexchange.co.uk/fxglossary.htm"

"A time of less business activity, usually lasting at least three quarters of the year or nine months.
www.mcwdn.org/ECONOMICS/EcoGlossary.html"

there are a lot of definitions, most of them support 2 or 3 quarters of actual negative growth. no way we can have that much negative growth by June 21.

Summer begins June 20th. The question states BY summer. There will not be official data BY June 20th.

Telling, or not?
http://www.google.com/trends?q=recession,+prosperity&date=all&geo=usa&ctab=0&ctab=0&sa=N

Wow.

When do you think Hubdubbers' egos will go into recession?

Don't get me started....

= )

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mork (This user: Is On Strike)

Sorry to cross the picket line. Not really.

Scott, you sir, are an ass.

ryan
you're gonna have to deal with the semantics of time zones or we gonna have to coin a new phrase for international pyschotic hubdubosis (IPH)

Interesting read today by the Economist. I love that newspaper.

(In the U.S. we would call it a magazine, but whatever. To each his own.)

http://www.economist.com/world/na/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=11016296

This market is freakin' awesome. News IS bad, right? bwah ha ha!
I don't have Buffett's money or psychosis.

Ryan, please clarify. Summer begins June 20th, towards the end of the 2nd quarter. The last quarter showed a growth of 6%, I believe. Therefore, no matter what the GDP is as of June 20th, The U.S. will not be in an official economic recession by the summer of '08, correct?

I think it was 0.6%
Still positive though.

My mistake. You're correct, tickle. Still, some explanation as to why this hasn't been settled would be nice.

I think the answer should be determined by the news like everything else. If the Fed or the White house says we are in a recession then that decides it.

i agree. so what if a word's meaning conflicts with what some politician says? if the white house says blue is actually red, then by god blue is red! duh! ::)

The question has an inherent problem because recessions are decided after they happen. So all of the numbers people are quoting not only are subject to change but we have probably been in a recession for longer than anyone thinks.

Perhaps the question should be voided and then made more concise. I can already see the screaming on this one.

I hope nobody tries to claim that they bet based on Howard Dean saying we're in a recession.

"As reported by the U.S. government and or a majority of mainstream media outlets" necessarily means "reported by the Commerce Department," where the "GDP" is calculated, specifically the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Since it looks like we're all in agreement that "official recession" is (2) negative quarters)

Also, Scott, I would like to apologize for comment #24.

Further, we're not in a recession (yet) as the "Final" number for Q4 2007 was positive.

Enjoy those rebate cheques!

Scott, the fact that last quarter showed growth is not subject to change. The fact that the beginning of summer (June 20th) is before the end of the second quarter is not subject to change. I agree there will probably be alot of screaming from folks like you who bet on a recession by summer, but facts don't lie. Perhaps the second quarter will end with negative growth...then we'll have to see what the third quarter does, putting us into autum.

tickle, I will accept your apology along with 50,000 hubdub points.

:>

Kidding - don't worry about it. Just a game.

I'll re-iterate. If this question isn't voided it will make the Spitzer question seem tame.

im losing faith in my understanding of how things should be settled/voided around here, so im gonna cash out a big chunk of this one (2.5%). gotta limit the potential loss. soz to those whose portfolios take a little dip. :D

dan, I more than understand. However, I'll take advantage of what your cashing out did to the market and put another grand on "NO"

Eric hard to do that on a suspended question - but if you can let me know how so I can put 10,000 more on yes.

After careful consideration, this market has been voided. Due to the two negative quarters required, for the US to be "in" recession by that date is not possible. However reading the comments and looking at the market many users have clearly read this question differently and many opinions exist as to the final outcome. For example if the US was in the negative growth which led to that recession by summer would it count? I felt under the circumstances the only choice was to void.

Andrew
Hubdub Category Manager

how sad.

It wasn't voided when i upped (sp?) my wager. I'm really confused by Andrews post, "Due to the two negative quarters required, for the US to be "in" recession by that date is not possible." That's exactly what many have been saying is the reason this market should have been settled, not voided. Will the U.S. be in an official economic recession by the summer of 08?...Looks like a pretty simple question to me. Hubdub seriously dropped the ball on this one!!

if this is the conclusion, why wasnt it reached when it was outlined verbatim 9 weeks ago in comment #6? why wait for 4 months and $200k?

given the recent decisions, i dont know whats being smoked in the back rooms of hd hq, but it must be better than what i have currently.

if only half the attention was paid to voiding and co-opting my relatively solid questions, the other half could be put to far better use.

Indeed Dan...at least 5 requests for clarification and/or settlement posted since the market was opened the 21st of January. Not a peep from the HubDubGods. Now, almost 3 months and over $200,000 worth of action...they wake up and decide to void it. What took so long? Amazing................