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Will the US government legalize gay marriage by the end of 2008?

Current forecast: 6% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 6% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

The U.S. government is not to be understood as states, but as a all encompassing government bill.
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$59,962
Question suspends in 17 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (17 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Jan 4:12pm PST by gtanenbaum
Edited Tue 26th Feb 2:11pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Edited Tue 11th Mar 6:23am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (329)

329 predictions

7 weeks ago
caseman predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
9 weeks ago
conservatives_suck predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
10 weeks ago
conservatives_suck predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
12 weeks ago
thereverend predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
12 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$10,000 at 91%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 nubbins
Do you mean federally in the US? I'm guessing this is the case, but I just want to be clear on the settlement details.
posted 30 weeks ago
yes, not a state by state proposal. A federal bill
posted 30 weeks ago
  3 shadow
We all know as long as Bush is in office, or any republican is in office for that matter, there will not be a federally mandated law that allows the union of two individuals of the same sex in marriage. The majority of America is conservative christian, and the values of christianity dig deep into the history of America as a country.
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 Erik
pssst....shadow, presidents don't pass or initiate legislation.
posted 18 weeks ago
  5 shadow
Oh i know that, however, a president can veto a bill. Also the legislative branch of the government can keep going back and forth for years on a resolution. Even if a conservative party is in the minority they can filibuster a resolution for a while. Trust me i understand the process of government, maybe not perfectly but i get the gist.
posted 18 weeks ago
  6 Erik
shadow- If I'm understanding your proposal correctly; Any "federally mandated law that allows the union of two individuals of the same sex in marriage" or disallows, would require an amendment to the U.S. Constitution since currently marriage is not the jurisdiction of the federal government. This would be difficult no matter which party is in the majority. Difficult but not imposible as it has been done 25 times. Since the first step (before the bill ever going to the various states) would require 2/3 majority of both Houses of Congress, a presidential veto would never enter into the equation. (See Article V of the Constitution of the United States of America)
posted 18 weeks ago

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