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Will the US or Israel Nuke Iran by the end of 2008?

Current forecast: 17% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 17% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Will some "evidence" or "terrorist attack" prompt the U.S. or Israel to nuke Iran by the end of 2008?
 
% chance over time
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Yes
17%
No
83%
Activity: H$65,196
Question suspends in 17 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (17 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 42%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Jan 1:35pm PST by msheekhah
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:15pm PST by tomg[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:16pm PST by tomg[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

131 predictions

3 days ago
aussieguy predicted No (H$100 at 83%)
3 days ago
cookietime predicted No (H$1,500 at 82%)
4 days ago
gingerboi predicted Yes (H$50 at 19%)
4 days ago
thesloth840 predicted No (H$50 at 81%)
4 days ago
tarpash predicted No (H$800 at 80%)
more

Comments

theres no way, nukes are a desperate measure used to get around actually fighting a formidable opponent (such as Japan). Neither of these nations would need such an action to easily win against Iran, especially becuase they almost certainly fight together if it happens.
posted 8 weeks ago

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