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Will the U. S. national average gasoline price hit $4 per gallon by the Fourth of July?

Background: CNN reported that, according to a survey by The Civil Society Institute, 71% of Americans expect summer gas prices to hit $4 a gallon. However, John Kidulff, energy analyst for MF Global is quoted as stating that $4 by summer is not likely.

Settlement details:As reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.doe.gov/

 
Forecast history %
Yes
97%
No
3%
Settled as Yes on Sun 8th Jun 2008 4:50am PST

Suspend date: Fri 4th Jul 2008 12pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 4:50am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 30th Jan 2008 1:24pm PST by smidge76
Settlement requested Sun 8th Jun 2008 4:43am PST by Erik: "Will the U. S. national average gasoline price hit $4 per gallon by the Fourth of July?"
Nope...nothing about regular gas, only.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm $4.026
This is settled as "Yes"
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 8th Jun 2008 4:50am PST by andrew: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm

Suspend date: Fri 4th Jul 2008 12pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 4:50am PST details

 

Predictions (156)

1 year ago
gypsy predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 95%)
1 year ago
gypsy predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 87%)
1 year ago
jkatie predicted Yes (H$100 at 79%)
1 year ago
warrickt predicted Yes (H$20 at 79%)
1 year ago
gypsy predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 77%)

Comments (9)

  1 crowe
requesting settlement as yes please.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline rose to a milestone mark Sunday as the national average compiled by motorist group AAA reached $4 a gallon for the first time in history...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/08/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes
posted 1 year ago
The settlement source is EIA - at their last update it was at 3.976 on the 2nd. I think greater than 4 dollars at the next release (tomorrow I believe) is pretty darn likely, so feel free to put the h$ on. But this isn't quite ready to settle.
posted 1 year ago
  7 bayoubear[Admin]
Yep...you're right Jenni....the source is the EIA, Energy Information Administration, and they release their numbers every Monday...so once that's released, we'll know for sure....and the number I've been using for this is for "Gasoline-All Grades" which last week on June 2 was $4.026 . . . now if Smidge intended to use the results for 'regular' gas only, you would be correct in saying that it was only $3.976.

There's a lot of different numbers out there, so you really do need to be specific about which source will be used and what set of data will be the mark to be used.

Either way...it will definitely be $4 by the 4th, if not already, by tomorrow for sure!
posted 1 year ago
  8 Erik
"Will the U. S. national average gasoline price hit $4 per gallon by the Fourth of July?"
Nope...nothing about regular gas, only.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm $4.026
posted 1 year ago
Thank you Erik, that decision & source is more consistent with the reporting on the topic than the original link listed in the subtitle of the market (which implied Regular gas only). The decision has the Hubdub market closing with the reporting of the U.S. hitting $4 a gallon for the first time. Good job.

posted 1 year ago

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