Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded on or before May 31st, 2008?

related market: http://tinyurl.com/2t59ek

ummm. does this mean if they start shooting at each other then they have rescinded the cease-fire
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSCOL554152

"order: n. An authoritative indication to be obeyed; a command or direction."

an order is *to be* obeyed...but it doesnt always work out like that. a sunni cop taking a pot shot at a mahdi army member has no bearing on the order itself...other than to potentially influence the brass of either side to rescind it.

The ongoing violence between the Mehdi Army (Sadrists) and Iraqi forces seems to mean that if not formally the ceasefire order has been thrown to the ground, does the market creator agree?

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

certainly not. until the brass of either side (or their spokesman) says the deal is off, we still have a cease-fire order. perhaps not a very well observed cease-fire order, but the order stands nonetheless.

maybe what is happening is al-sadr is losing control of his movement? subsequently, an iraqi or coalition figure may unilaterally declare the agreement effectively void and al-sadr no longer in control of the mahdi army. in that case, this question could be settled. but no matter how u cut it, the order must be rescinded from the top, not disobeyed from below, to settle this market.

case in point: north korea. there has been a cease-fire in effect for many decades, yet both sides regularly exchange small arms fire from across the dmz. this just means that those taking part in the fracas are in violation of the cease-fire order, not that the order is no longer in place.

btw, thx for soliciting my opinion. :)

The settlement of this market might get very messy. The Mehdi army has a political wing and a military wing and right now those two groups are at odds. Sadr is attempting to find a diplomatic settlement and the military arm is doing what a military arm does best.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

i dont think so. ultimately, if one side is pushed too hard they're gonna break from the cease-fire. that may mean 1) al-sadr himself rescinds the cease-fire, 2) al-sadr loses control of the mahdi army and whomever assumes control rescinds the order (as theyre chomping at the bit to do), 3) the isf and coalition forces grow weary of increasing violence and rescind the order themselves so as to begin cleaning house beyond the break-away factions.

the worst case scenario that i could envision (regarding the settlement of this market) is that perhaps the mahdi army dissolves before the date indicated in the question. but, according to the definitions provided, this would count as "yes".

but im eager to hear from anyone else who can imagine any complicating scenarios regarding the settlement of this market. i doubt ive thought of everything. :)

Way to stick to your guns (so to speak) d_t_o I think your question was very well put and I think we will know when it all falls apart. The headlines will read "Bush says surge a great success".

hehe, this markets gonna look like a roller coaster ride. ive personally changed positions a couple times. :D