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Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded on or before May 31st, 2008?

Settled as No

Still technically in place

Background:

Background: http://www.newsmax.com/international/iraq/2008/03/25/82809.html

"The cease-fire has come under severe strains in recent weeks as U.S. and Iraqi forces detained followers they accuse of belonging to breakaway factions from the movement. Elements from the Mahdi Army and Badr Brigade also have frequently clashed in the southern Shiite heartland."

PLEASE NOTE EXTENSIVE SETTLEMENT DETAILS BEFORE MAKING YOUR PREDICTION!

Settlement details:As reported by www.foxnews.com or www.newsmax.com.

All dates/times in local time, unless otherwise stated.

Suspend date of May 17th, 2008 NOT to be adjusted.

Glossary for difficult admins and those wishing to take part in this market:
cease-fire: n. An order to stop firing.
force: n. A body of persons or other resources organized or available for a certain purpose.
order: n. An authoritative indication to be obeyed; a command or direction.
rescind: tr.v. To make void; repeal or annul.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
46%
No
54%
Settled as No on Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:14pm PST

Suspend date: Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:14pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 25th Mar 2008 7:48am PST by dan_the_omniscient
Settlement requested Tue 25th Mar 2008 9:01am PST by meanderingsearcher: i think the line that says "1,000s of bullets everywhere would about answer the question
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSCOL554152
Suspended Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Yes' Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:12pm PST by lesley[Admin]: Still technically in place: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/06/iraqi_army_interdict.php
Previous action withdrawn Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:13pm PST by lesley[Admin]: Human malfunction.
Settled as 'No' Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:14pm PST by lesley[Admin]: Still technically in place

Suspend date: Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Jun 2008 12:14pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 17th May 2008 9:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (48)

1 year ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 49%)
1 year ago
drunkenmonkey predicted No (H$200 at 48%)
1 year ago
tankman predicted No (H$20 at 47%)
1 year ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No (H$20 at 47%)
1 year ago
mafuskas predicted Yes (H$20 at 53%)

Comments (9)

related market: http://tinyurl.com/2t59ek
posted 1 year ago
ummm. does this mean if they start shooting at each other then they have rescinded the cease-fire
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSCOL554152
posted 1 year ago
"order: n. An authoritative indication to be obeyed; a command or direction."

an order is *to be* obeyed...but it doesnt always work out like that. a sunni cop taking a pot shot at a mahdi army member has no bearing on the order itself...other than to potentially influence the brass of either side to rescind it.
posted 1 year ago
  4 ryanj
The ongoing violence between the Mehdi Army (Sadrists) and Iraqi forces seems to mean that if not formally the ceasefire order has been thrown to the ground, does the market creator agree?

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
certainly not. until the brass of either side (or their spokesman) says the deal is off, we still have a cease-fire order. perhaps not a very well observed cease-fire order, but the order stands nonetheless.

maybe what is happening is al-sadr is losing control of his movement? subsequently, an iraqi or coalition figure may unilaterally declare the agreement effectively void and al-sadr no longer in control of the mahdi army. in that case, this question could be settled. but no matter how u cut it, the order must be rescinded from the top, not disobeyed from below, to settle this market.

case in point: north korea. there has been a cease-fire in effect for many decades, yet both sides regularly exchange small arms fire from across the dmz. this just means that those taking part in the fracas are in violation of the cease-fire order, not that the order is no longer in place.

btw, thx for soliciting my opinion. :)
posted 1 year ago
  6 ryanj
The settlement of this market might get very messy. The Mehdi army has a political wing and a military wing and right now those two groups are at odds. Sadr is attempting to find a diplomatic settlement and the military arm is doing what a military arm does best.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
i dont think so. ultimately, if one side is pushed too hard they're gonna break from the cease-fire. that may mean 1) al-sadr himself rescinds the cease-fire, 2) al-sadr loses control of the mahdi army and whomever assumes control rescinds the order (as theyre chomping at the bit to do), 3) the isf and coalition forces grow weary of increasing violence and rescind the order themselves so as to begin cleaning house beyond the break-away factions.

the worst case scenario that i could envision (regarding the settlement of this market) is that perhaps the mahdi army dissolves before the date indicated in the question. but, according to the definitions provided, this would count as "yes".

but im eager to hear from anyone else who can imagine any complicating scenarios regarding the settlement of this market. i doubt ive thought of everything. :)
posted 1 year ago
  8 owl1
Way to stick to your guns (so to speak) d_t_o I think your question was very well put and I think we will know when it all falls apart. The headlines will read "Bush says surge a great success".
posted 1 year ago
hehe, this markets gonna look like a roller coaster ride. ive personally changed positions a couple times. :D
posted 1 year ago

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