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Will the first CDU / green coalition in Hamburg, Germany break before next regular elections 2013?

Current forecast: 42% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 42% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

They formed the first CDU/green coalition on state level. How long will the project survive?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
42%
No
58%
Activity: H$1,759
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Wed 30th Apr 2:38am PDT by pepe

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (6)

6 predictions

12 weeks ago
agent predicted No (H$10 at 58%)
27 weeks ago
sebastianw predicted Yes (H$100 at 41%)
29 weeks ago
exilpat predicted No (H$50 at 60%)
30 weeks ago
space_oracle predicted No (H$50 at 60%)
30 weeks ago
phex predicted No (H$500 at 60%)

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