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Will the navy shoot down failed satellite on Thurs 2/21?

Settled as No

According to Reuters: "The SM-3 missile was fired from the USS Lake Erie in the Pacific at about 10:26 p.m. EST, the Pentagon said in a statement". That would be Wednesday at 7.26pm PST I believe!

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
17%
No
83%
Settled as No on Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:31pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:31pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 20th Feb 2008 7:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Feb 2008 7:43pm PST by ltmod
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 8:05pm PST by beezler: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/dead_satellite
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 8:18pm PST by skipper: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,331591,00.html
yes
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 8:38pm PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/dead_satellite
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 9:05pm PST by destry[Admin]: This should be settled as a NO, the satellite was shot down on Wed 2/20, not Thursday 2/21. http://letters.washingtonpost.com/W0RH0128090DD3A0C776E35DC61F00
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 9:22pm PST by steph: All predictions placed after 7:26 PM PST should be voided. The rocket was launched at 10:26 EST
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 9:33pm PST by mork[Power User]: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/us/21satellite.html?hp
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 2008 10:17pm PST by akbeast: forgot to add my comment on it. The Shootdown was not confirmed until after midnight, and not reported until 12:55 EST, so technically 2/21
Settled as 'No' Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:31pm PST by lesley[Admin]: According to Reuters: "The SM-3 missile was fired from the USS Lake Erie in the Pacific at about 10:26 p.m. EST, the Pentagon said in a statement". That would be Wednesday at 7.26pm PST I believe!

Suspend date: Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 20th Feb 2008 11:31pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 20th Feb 2008 7:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (319)

1 year ago
samoletov predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
1 year ago
edogg predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
1 year ago
emily predicted No (H$50 at 90%)
1 year ago
socalchristy predicted No (H$182 at 94%)
1 year ago
mikecowen predicted Yes (H$100 at 4%)

Comments (11)

  1 yonemoto
Please define "Shoot Down". Do we mean score a strike? Or do we mean strike hard enough that the satellite disintegrates into pieces that quantitatively burn up in the atmosphere. Almost certainly, the missile strike will be in an "upwards" direction.
posted 1 year ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Shoot down means, essentially, explode the satellite into small enough pieces that the mission is considered a success.
posted 1 year ago
  3 destry[Admin]
So this will be settled as a no if the satellite is shot down on Wednesday
posted 1 year ago
  4 constable1664
Tuesday afternoon I received a 9 page memo from U.S. FEMA on "falling space objects" - sounds like they vote "No" as well.
posted 1 year ago
  5 mozrules
Which time zone? 9:30pm PST Wed is Thurs EST, right?
posted 1 year ago
Time zone is certainly the msot critical aspect of this wager. It needs to be clarified immediately. Thursday UTC 00:00 is still afternoon/early evening for the United States...therefore a news source could report that it was shot down Thursday as well as Wednesday.
posted 1 year ago
  7 arnos
Just look at the settlement details, if the satellite hasn't been shot down within 14 hours then "no" should win.
posted 1 year ago
I dunno if the latest Hubdub rules apply to this question -- if so, than "Thursday" would be from 00:00 PST to 23:59 PST, Thursday, Feb 21, 2008.

"2.2.3 Time and Time Zones
* All timings on the site are in PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT)"

posted 1 year ago
  9 shadowfax
I found this interesting and trying to remember a post by someone mentioning selling the pieces on ebay-
"We are worried about something showing up on e-Bay," GlobalSecurity.org director John Pike told
the Associated Press last week, pointing out that some sophisticated surveillance
technology could survive re-entry.
posted 1 year ago
  11 destry[Admin]
This should be settled as a NO. The satellite was shot down on Wednesday. It was shot down before 23:59 PST on 2/20.
posted 1 year ago

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