Will the 'no' option be a greater percentage than the 'yes' option at suspend date?

[cough] it can't be settled accurately though.

= )

maybe im missing something, but is it ever possible to win?

right now yes has 41 and no has 59

if i bet yes, that means i am betting that "no" will be have a greater percentage.
--if i am right, i lose because i said no would be greater, but i bet on yes
if i bet no, just the opposite happens.

maybe i'm worng, but this is definitely hurting my brain. can someone help me?

I love this question!!!!!

Phred, you're right. Basically, you place your prediction on one option, and hope that most folks dump money into the other option.

= )

exactly steph, you have to bet on the opposite of what you think others will!

question is kewl all right. my brain hurts.
if you gain even gain an opinion on your answer, voting for your answer would increase the value of the opposite side of the market. whoa. did i get that right, or am I leaking brain fluid?

yes, it's a paradox...

I don't think I would feel right to wager on a question in which I have a direct influence on the results - or at least a direct influence on the opposite result of my prediction.

I don't know about the 'cannot be gamed' part - you might not be able to game this question in your OWN favour, but if you were trying to wager on some other hubdub question like will someone be in the top ten or have a certain amount of HD by a certain point, you could have them wager one way on this question and then wager a large enough amount to skew the percentage just before settlement to help them out, right? Just wondering.

Wowza -- I could cash in right now and make H$ 3.00 !

mozrules,

This would be a difficult question to game even with the collusion of another Hubdubber. If you (hypothetically) wanted to game a question by conspiring with another user there would be _much_ easier questions to game than this one. I'm amazed that it's even 2% away from 50-50. Too bad it doesn't suspend for 3 weeks, I could make a killing 8^)

tbh, I'm scared of this question even though I created it. I'm not touching it!

hahaha skipper!! Pretty much my sentiments exactly. I almost tried it, but then the mathematical possibilities boggled my mind and I just couldn't do it. It's at 50-50 right now, which is kinda what I would expect it to end up at. (And no, don't feel the need to make a Yes/No question asking if this one will end up 50-50, lol)

The Hubdub category is quickly becoming my second favourity category ......after Sports of course

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)

I've been brave... i put $$$$$ on YES, and the NO option is still over 50% .... cool i'm going to dubble my bets and earn 2 $H

Ok, as far as i see it, its better to bet early on this rather than late, each gives you roughly 50/50 odds due to other people playing, however an large early bet will have more time to even itself out than a large late one, and betting in the endgame requires you to outguess people to the degree that it may as well be random, so the best tactic on this is to bet wehn it falls a few % from 50, giving a marginally better return (the advantage of this would however decrease with larger bets, and this gets less likely to occur as the market progresses..... so I get lost....), although wheter this would be more worthwile in the payout than just playing it like a stock market (buying whatever falls below 50% and then sellling once it reaches 50%) is questionable, and while the "stock market" method technically allows for some advantage (as the market will tend to a fixed point at all times), this will diminish as more is invested, and will probably only be a 2-3% return on small bets, and less on larger ones (as they skew the market back towards 50% when they are placed).
This is mostly me just trying to get my head around this.... thoughts welcome if you have any...

I love it "tedium"!!!
I would like to add one element, what if they (hubdub admins) were to allow us to sell short?
That way, I could bet that NO will win by shorting YES. Do you get me? Shorting works like this, I see that YES is not going to win, but I don't want to bet on NO, because I think NO will win, so I "short sell" YES, thus causing YES to fall (cause short selling means I sell now to buy back later) and therefore NO has a better odds of winning, however, if I am to get out of my short sell, then I must buy it later, thus causing NO to fall and YES to rise back up......... Okay, now I just confused myself! ................... I can't make this work even with short selling. HAHAHAHAHA!!!
GREAT question "skipper" ... This site gets more fun each and every day :-D

lucidstates

finding it rather odd that since the 5th, the percentage on "no" seems to be consistantly under 50%... not complaining as such, as unless there is a sudden switch at suspend time, it makes my bets win, just commenting on it as odd (also reduces the gains from playing the market)

Lucidstates: if selling short was allowed, then you could game the system, which you can not normally do. (and "shouldn't" do)

hmmm ... no matter which way this market settles, I will gain H$25.

... so, have I gamed the market? ;-)

I think i may have found a way to game this question. But in order to make it work, you would have to have a lot of money. all you do is bet enough money to "fix" the odds enough to get good odds for the other answer. then you put a large amount of money on the answer that now has good odds, and the money you make from putting a large amount of money on that answer should cover the cost of "fixing" the odds.

I don't think that would work. The money you are about to invest affects the odds, so if you put a lot on No, and then tried to make a killing by betting nearly enough to make it Yes, the odds would reflect the amount you invested in Yes. You would lose money.

The problem with all the possible ways of gaming this is that they will only work if everyone else's gaming strategies re-enforce it, oherwise the money going back and forth would probably cancel out, or be large enough that the gaming would be obvious. For instance placing multiple bets on one outcome and removing enough to push the odds down near the end would work if it was only you betting, but as others will (especially now) be doing it, it is unlikely to influence the final outcome enough to be more worthwhile than leaving the bets there (on average, half will win from this, half will lose, but that's the same odds as playing "normally").
On a side note: if a large sum is placed for a gaming method that would work, and is caught and banhammered, would to settlement reflect the odds with or without the large sum (assuming it made a difference to the outcome)

@Newswangler: No more then you can on amy hubdub market, the odds change enough that you can generally get low odds for most if not all options if you bet at the right time, meaning a gain whatever otion comes up (although less of a gain than only betting on the right one of course)

Is someone planning to massively sell "Yes" stakes?
... just asking ...

I'm betting the farm on "Maybe". I'm going to make a killing!

= )

7 hours to go... now we play CHICKEN!!!

I think I'm going to create a Hubdub question, "What is the maximum amount of H$ anyone made on the settlement of this question?" What do you think? I'd be surprised if anyone successfully gamed it (without using multiple accounts).

I gained H$11.00 on this question.

I had earlier said I would win H$25.00 -- apparently I forgot how to subtract. :-}

Does H$11.00 get me into the Gamers Hall of Fame?