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Will the number of American soldiers killed in Afghanistan in 2008 be less than in 2007?

Current forecast: 79% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 79% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)

The war in Afghanistan has been largely forgotten by the American people, the American Government and the U.S. Media. This will be settled by the website http://www.icasualties.org/oef/ , which is independent of the U.S. Government. 117 Americans sacrificed their lives in this "nation" in 2007, lets hope that fewer do so in 2008.
 
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Yes
79%
No
21%
Activity: H$13,651
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.icasualties.org/oef/

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Mon 25th Feb 3:16pm PST by historyteacher
Edited Thu 6th Mar 11:29am PST by lesley[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.icasualties.org/oef/... read all

 

Predictions (47)

47 predictions

2 days ago
rabble predicted No (H$100 at 22%)
1 week ago
brosenau predicted No (H$71 at 21%)
1 week ago
brosenau predicted No (H$100 at 20%)
2 weeks ago
bookie predicted No (H$573 at 17%)
3 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$20 at 16%)
more

Comments (4)

I would like to explain this question, particulary since there is a debate over a question like this on Iraq.

I chose icasualties.org as the source for this since they report deaths from multiple sources of information and not just the US military. While I hold the American soldier in highest esteem I do not hold the propagandists that lied about Pat Tillmans's death, Jessica Lynch's rescue, etc. in any esteem. Thus a site separate from the US military was chosen.

How do we determine our success or regress in Afghanistan if not by the value of US lives. This was the war that had to be fought, the attack on the US on 9/11 was ordered from this "nation", commandeered by the Taliban from Pakistan and rented out to Bin Laden. Since we have no policy to go after the terrorists harbored by our "friends" in Pakistan, we must determine our success based on our lives.

Why ask this at all? Too many people have forgotten that there is a very real war going on in Afghanistan. We invaded in 2001 yet the 3 costliest years have been 2005, 2006 and 2007 with 117 Americans dieing there last year. These troops sometimes wait hours for air support and since we invaded Iraq seem to be lower on the ladder for needed supplies. They are fighting in the "nation" that housed our attackers, yet many Americans do not even know this war is still going on. This is not to take anything away from the soldiers, sailors and marines serving in Iraq, as many are the same folks.

I want there to be less deaths in Afghanistan than last year. I want there to be less deaths in Iraq as well. I want us to get that SOB Bin Laden and do unspeakable things to him. I think I will have to wait for another President to get the last one.

One week from today I will be betting $10,000 on the YES side of this question. This is for all of you that question the patriotism of those that think remembering our war dead is unpatriotic. A yes bet is for fewer deaths in 2008. So bet whichever side you want before I screw up the odds in the hope that in this war, more Americans will return home to their families in 2008.
posted 27 weeks ago
  2 ashanan
Why is Afghanistan a "nation" and not a nation?
posted 26 weeks ago
I referred to it as a "nation" because it is not a unified nation and never has been. 70% of it is controlled by local warlords or the Taliban, the President of Afghanistan is really the leader of Kabul and the surrounding region.
posted 26 weeks ago
Ok for all you folks that accused people betting on the Iraq question of wanting to profit from the deaths of Americans. I put this question over a week ago. I waited a week as I said to give people time to bet the question. I now have my full 10,000 put up on the side of fewer American casualties. All of you that questioned the morality of others on the Iraq question, here is you chance to put your $$ where your &^%^#@* mouth is. On the other hand if you choose to wager that more Americans will die I will assume it is based on your analysis of US policy and will not question your patriotism or your morality.
posted 26 weeks ago

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