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Will the price of Oil end the week closer to $98.00 or $112.00 / barrel? (April 7th-11th)

Settled as Closer to $112.00 / barrel

110.14
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-erases-losses-end-almost/story.aspx?guid=%7B425B3EAE%2DFC6B%2D4F44%2D8070%2D12860359C1BB%7D&dist=news

Background:

This question asks, with $105.00 as the mid point, which price will Light Sweet Crude Oil traded on the NYMEX be closer to at the end of trading this week, $98.00 / barrel or $112.00 / barrel? ... Remember, $105.00 is the middle point, so let's say you think Oil will end the week near $100.89 / barrel then you will want to pick "Closer to $98.00 / barrel" however, if you think Oil will close around $108.65 / barrel, then you will want to choose the option "Closer to $112.00 / barrel." Now if Oil closes on Friday at $104.99 / barrel, then the "Closer to $98.00 / barrel" will WIN, if it closes on Friday at $105.01 / barrel, then "Closer to $112.00 / barrel" will WIN, however, if it closes on Friday at $105.00 / barrel then "Closes at Exactly $105.00 / barrel" will WIN. This question suspends early Friday to prevent problems with betting near the close of the trading day and will be settled when the markets CLOSE this Friday the 11th of April.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Closer to $98.00 / barrel
0%
Closes at Exactly $105.00 / barrel
0%
Closer to $112.00 / barrel
100%
Activity: H$31,805
Settled as Closer to $112.00 / barrel on Fri 11th Apr 2:20pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 11th Apr 6:15am PDT Settlement date: Fri 11th Apr 2:20pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Apr 6:15am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Closer to $98.00 / barrel: 49%, Closes at Exactly $105.00 / barrel: 1%, Closer to $112.00 / barrel: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 4th Apr 6:04pm PDT by lucidstates
Edited Tue 8th Apr 10:24am PDT by andrew
Suspended Fri 11th Apr 6:15am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 11th Apr 2:17pm PDT by lucidstates: Oil closed at $110.14 today, so please Settle this question as:
CLOSER TO $112.00 / barrel.
The Link:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-erases-losses-end-almost/story.aspx?guid=%7B425B3EAE%2DFC6B%2D4F44%2D8070%2D12860359C1BB%7D&dist=news

Thanks,

lucidstates

Suspend date: Fri 11th Apr 6:15am PDT Settlement date: Fri 11th Apr 2:20pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Apr 6:15am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (61)

61 predictions

33 weeks ago
ejayz predicted Closer to $112.00 / barrel (H$500 at 98%)
33 weeks ago
bzbeeman predicted Closer to $112.00 / barrel (H$100 at 98%)
33 weeks ago
l_one predicted Closer to $98.00 / barrel (H$50 at 2%)
33 weeks ago
lucidstates predicted Closer to $112.00 / barrel (H$2,580 at 98%)
33 weeks ago
vankev63 predicted Closer to $98.00 / barrel (H$20 at 2%)
more

Comments (12)

Okay, we have virtually the same question as I had for last week but with an additional option.

Last week I asked the question, Did you think Oil would end the week closer to $100.00 / barrel or $110.00 / barrel? ... So this question is essentially the same one, with $105.00 still being the middle point though I expanded the parameters so as to describe, more definitively, the question as a whole, however, a friend of mine (shadowfax) alerted me to the fact that if it ended the week at $105.00 / barrel, then the question would be voided and some nearly H$22,000 would be refunded, and no one likes a refund as it meant that their bet was pointless, so I've added a 3rd option which is "Closes at Exactly $105.00 / barrel" and this one, because of the odds against it happening, has a HUMONGOUS payoff, so if anyone is feeling lucky, you can now go for that one, AND in the event that it actually happens, then someone will make a freakin' bundle :-P

Happy betting,

lucidstates
posted 34 weeks ago
Mork and Destry have pledged to NOT play this game any further until a satisfactory conclusion is made concerning Satyaki's cheating ... PLEASE follow this link and ask ALL of your (friends) to use these links to send hubdub's admins a huge protest over this unethical situation!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

lucidstates (dismayed)
posted 34 weeks ago
  3 mork[Power User]
Thanks for the invite Lucid.
posted 34 weeks ago
My pleasure Mork ... I love that you participate in my questions :-D ... I love betting OIL ;-D
posted 34 weeks ago
Hey all hubdubbers, the admins who control this site want EVERYONE'S input on how to deal with this cheater Satyaki and ALL future gamers ... They are asking for everyone to post their opinions and suggestions for the official rules on this link:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?
This ongoing problem stems from this:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Why_is_it_that_Satyaki_keeps_creating_Lahore_Badshahs_vs_xyz_team_questions_yet_Donal_doent_void_them_5294/view#newcomment

Here is the LATEST proposal from hubdub admins that they desire our say on:
Admins want a 4 strikes and your out process:
Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming
Hubdub Representative
To date we have dealt with gaming on a case by case basis. However it has become clear that we need to have a defined process for dealing with individuals that game. Therefore this is our proposed procedure:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning
2. Second identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth
3. Third instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000
4. Any subsequent instance will result in their ability to create questions removed and potentially suspension of their account.
We propose to apply this procedure for all new instances of gaming however some users are on their first warning and one user is on their second warning.


HOWEVER, several of us users are calling for a MUCH stiffer penalty process and this is our overall latest proposal back to the admins:
We want a 3 strikes you're out process:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
2. Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks to 30 days) and fined down to H$1,000. AND removal of the gamers' right to create question for a period of time.
3. Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account, their IP and all other accounts by the gamer.


Have your say and please add your input at the area the admins have set up for this purpose:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 34 weeks ago
Wow, Oil at $109.49 as the high yesterday ... I LOVE these oil questions :-D
posted 34 weeks ago
  7 rohan
Aren't you the one that finally pays for oil with your (real)$$ ?
posted 34 weeks ago
  8 randburg
Why is the suspend date Friday April 18th for something that finished on April 11th?
posted 34 weeks ago
  9 andrew
Suspend date fixed.

Andrew
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 34 weeks ago
Oooops, my bad people .... Thank you for noticing my blunder Randburg :-D ... And thanks Andrew for correcting. I will be more careful next time :-)

lucidstates
posted 33 weeks ago
Oil set a new intraday high of $112.21 earlier in the session. The previous intraday high of $111.80 was set March 17, while the previous closing high of $110.33 was set March 13.

Too bad we have to wait until the end of the week -- to see how far prices will fall ;-)
posted 33 weeks ago
Hahaha :-D ... I am just glad that even though I am paying out the nose at the pump, at least my HubDub Oil Bets are doing GRRREAT :-P
posted 33 weeks ago

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