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Will the ratio of "No" to "Yes" be greater than the percentage of "Yes" when this question is settled?

Settled as Yes

Example: if NO is 10% and YES is 90%, the ratio is 10/90 = .1111 which is less than 0.9 (YES), so it would be settled as NO.

This self-referential question is similar to http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_no_option_be_a_greater_percentage_than_the_yes_option_at_suspend_date_3126/view and can likewise be settled without being gamed.
 
% chance over time
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
58%
No
42%
Activity: H$17,763
Settled as Yes on Wed 2nd Apr 4:37am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Apr 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 2nd Apr 4:37am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 2nd Apr 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Mar 8:30am PDT by triathematician
Suspended Wed 2nd Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 2nd Apr 4:10am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: .42/.58=.72>.52, so YES the ratio of NO/YES is greater than the YES, so settle as YES
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 2nd Apr 4:37am PDT by tomg[Admin]: 42/58=.72>.58, so YES the ratio of NO/YES is greater than the YES, so settle as YES. You crazy kids! :)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

20 weeks ago
bitz predicted Yes (H$100 at 58%)
20 weeks ago
triathematician predicted No (H$31 at 38%)
20 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted Yes (H$250 at 62%)
20 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Yes (H$500 at 60%)
20 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 44%)
more

Comments

And I thought the other question hurt my brain!
posted 21 weeks ago
Phi on you for asking this! Well the inverse of Phi anyway.
posted 21 weeks ago
:-)
posted 21 weeks ago
I put equal predictions on both options because I don't want to be accused of trying to game the site 8^)
posted 21 weeks ago
  5 skipper[Power User]
I can't bet on it! lol
posted 21 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
Currently the rating is Yes 62, No 38, that would mean No/Yes = 38/62 = 0.613
which means 61.3 < 62 (the ratio is smaller than the value) so it would settle as "No"
posted 20 weeks ago
  7 kruijs[Power User]
Now I put my 100$H on "no", the rating is Yes 61, No 39, that would mean No/Yes = 39/61 = 0.639
which means 63.9 > 61 (the ratio is larger than the value) so it would settle as "Yes".
Hm. Damn.
posted 20 weeks ago
chuckle
posted 20 weeks ago
  9 chappy78
These questions are cool. I had to stop and figure out the dividing line.

A YES at or above 61.804% will settle as "NO" and a YES at or below 61.803% will settle as "YES."

My head hurts.
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 rohan
I wasn't ready to trust anyone, so I tried out this Java code to detect:

class calc
{public void main()
{double yes,no,finalyes=1;
double i;

for(i=1;i<100;i=i+0.01)
{yes =i;
no=(100-i);
double ratio=no/yes;
yes=yes/100;
if(ratio>yes)
finalyes=yes*100;
}

System.out.println("For Yes: Yes % must be:"+finalyes+"% or more");

}
}



It returned an output:

For Yes: Yes % must be:61.79999999999627% or more



posted 20 weeks ago
  12 rohan
However, I realised that would be gaming, so I modified it to this:

class calc
{public void main()
{double yes,no,finalyes=1;
double i;

for(i=1;i<100;i=i+0.01)
{yes =i;
no=(100-i);
double ratio=no/yes;
yes=yes/100;
if(ratio>yes)
finalyes=yes*100;
}

System.out.println("For No: Yes % must be:"+finalyes+"% or more");

}
}


For No: Yes % must be:61.79999999999627% or more



posted 20 weeks ago
  13 rohan
Which is a small error, since increments have been taken to be 0.01%, not 0.001 or less.

Hubdub will probably take 1%, which means:

For No: Yes % must be:62.0% or more

posted 20 weeks ago
  14 rohan
Am I someone with a lot of time to waste or not... (that's rhetorical, don't answer)
posted 20 weeks ago
Rohan - You're assuming integers which is creating some roundoff error. Try algebra: let Yes=x, No=(1-x) then:
(1-x)/x=x
x^2+x-1=0
use quadratic formula and you find that x=-1.61803 or .618034
Since we're a positive kind of group on hubdub, you pick x=.618034 thus you're looking for yes of 61.8034% or more :)
posted 20 weeks ago
  16 rohan
import java.io.*;
class Quadratic /*This program solves a quadratic equation(ie. with two possible
solutions) in the form a*x^2 + b*x + c=0, where 'x' is unknown
and 'a', 'b' and 'c' are accepted from the user. It uses global
variables */

{double x1,x2,a,b,c,discriminant; //Global variables

public void main () throws IOException /*Main function, which accepts the values of
'a', 'b' and 'c', and also calls the
calculate function */

{BufferedReader br=new BufferedReader(new InputStreamReader(System.in));
System.out.println("The equation should be in the form a*x^2 + b*x + c=0, where 'x' is unknown");
System.out.println("Enter 'a'");
a=Integer.parseInt(br.readLine()); //'a' is accepted
System.out.println("Enter 'b'");
b=Integer.parseInt(br.readLine()); //'b' is accepted
System.out.println("Enter 'c'");
c=Integer.parseInt(br.readLine()); //'c' is accepted
calculate(); //Calling calculate function
}

public void calculate () /*Calculate function, which calculates the value(s)
of 'x' by and prints them */
{discriminant=(b*b)-(4*a*c); //Calculates discriminant
if(discriminant<0) /*To prevent negative discriminant, as square root of a
negative number is impossible to find */
{System.out.println("Roots are negative, and thus there is no solution");}
else
{if(a!=0) //If 'a'=0, then the equation is a linear equation eg. x+4=0
{discriminant=Math.sqrt(discriminant);
x1=(-b+discriminant)/(2*a); //Calculating first value of 'x'
x2=(-b-discriminant)/(2*a); //Calculating second value of 'x'
}
else
{x1=-c/b; //Values of 'x' for a linear equation
x2=-c/b; //x2=x1, as a linear equation has only one solution
}
System.out.println("Solution: x= "+x1+" or x= "+x2);} //solution is printed
System.out.println();
}

}



Output:
The equation should be in the form a*x^2 + b*x + c=0, where 'x' is unknown

Enter 'a'

1
Enter 'b'

1
Enter 'c'

-1
Solution: x= 0.6180339887498949 or x= -1.618033988749895
posted 20 weeks ago
  17 rohan
Look like you're right
posted 20 weeks ago
  18 kruijs[Power User]
rohan, you must have to have too much time for something like this experimental approach. Why didn't you just visit triathematician's link? Bang, there's your answer ... and it must be right; why else should he call himself this way?
posted 20 weeks ago
  19 satyaki
let's game!!
posted 20 weeks ago
Rohan, if you have time to do that much programming to figure out a Hubdub question, I might be able to scare up a project or two for you ... pro bono of course 8^). How's your SQL?
posted 20 weeks ago
Okay, my head hurts, my eyes hurt and because of that my stomach now hurts, hahahaha, so can anyone explain to me RIGHT NOW, at this very second, with it being 61% YES and 39% No ... WHAT am I supposed to bet? I am sooooo utterly lost man :-D
Hehehehehe
These questions are fantastic, I just don't know what to do, hahaha :-D

And please hurry, I have only 7hrs till the question suspends and I need to make $50,000 quick..... Big Jimbo Da Clam wants his money back!!!

lucidstates
posted 20 weeks ago
  22 rohan
Ananaverageamerican: I'm 16. How good do you think my SQL is?
posted 20 weeks ago
Rohan,

I have no clue. My older son is 16 and he's learning SQL in High School, but yeah, he's not that good at it yet. Not to mention that I was just teasing ... and that's pretty impressive Java coding for a 16 year old (unless you downloaded it all from the 'net 8^). I encourage you to study SQL (and XML, which is a text file that acts like a database), these days code is rarely significant absent databases; even if you are writing things like operating systems.
posted 20 weeks ago
rohan you let the proverbial cat out of the bag i was enjoying you're, and satyaki's, input without anyone knowing how old you were
posted 20 weeks ago
  25 rohan
ananaverageamerican: I don't know any SQL. And I wrote all that Java myself. You think that's good, look at the program I put on satyaki's profile.

meanderingsearcher:LOL
posted 20 weeks ago

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