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Will the theory of a "God Particle" be confirmed by scientific testing by the suspend date of this question?

Current forecast: 20% chance 21%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 20% likely to happen (down 21% in last 1 day)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7607531.stm

Will the "God Particle" theory of British physicist Peter Higgs be confirmed by the end of May 2009 (the suspend date of this question)?

This question will be settled as a yes if the existance of the Higgs Boson is confirmed by the suspend date


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
20%
No
80%
Activity: H$91,282
Question suspends in 25 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Apr 10:29am PDT by duckie
Clarified Tue 8th Apr 12:11pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
Edited Tue 8th Apr 12:11pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
Edited Tue 8th Apr 1:01pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (183)

183 predictions

2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$4,000 at 77%)
3 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
3 weeks ago
silvermchic predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
3 weeks ago
m_sarki predicted No (H$240 at 71%)
3 weeks ago
harkon predicted Yes (H$200 at 29%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 duckie
admin: will you please change the suspend date to the last day in May 2009. Thank you.
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
posted 34 weeks ago
  3 myunion
currently its a 44% chance the "God Particle" will be confirmed, but the 'Higgs boson' is at (yes for by LHC 26% and 27% think Yes, by Tevatron) 53% seems in my reconing that these numbers should be the same (if everybody that voted, voted that is on both questions) or there might be some people riding the fence here.
posted 34 weeks ago
  4 markov
This is a great question.
posted 33 weeks ago
  5 duckie
Thanks!
posted 33 weeks ago
  6 duckie
Thanks!
posted 33 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
Stephen Hawking has a measly $100 on 'no' for the LHC!

Hawking bets CERN mega-machine won't find 'God's Particle' (Update)
http://www.physorg.com/news140161003.html
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 duckie
he is a crackpot anyway, what does he know?
posted 11 weeks ago
...Advanced astro-physics
posted 11 weeks ago

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