
Will the winner of the U.S. Presidential election receive the popular vote?
Settlement details:
As reported on or the day after the election by the voting statistics.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Obama popular vote by millions more than McCain.
Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (134)
134 predictions
Comments (11)
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1876 - Hayes vs Tilden
1888 - Harrison vs Cleveland
a very comprehensive look:
http://www.fec.gov/pdf/eleccoll.pdf
And here, in the word's of Sgt. Friday, are the facts, just the facts:
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/
Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4% (neither majority)
1996:
Clinton 49.24% Dole 40.71% (neither majority)
1992:
Clinton 43.0% Bush 37.7% (neither majority)
1968:
Nixon 43.4% Wallace 42.7%
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