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Will the winner of the U.S. Presidential election receive the popular vote?

Settled as Yes

In the Gore/Bush election of 2000, Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote, and therefore did not win the election. It is possible for this to occur and this sort of election usually occurs after a full 2 term president leaves office (Bush).


Settlement details: As reported on or the day after the election by the voting statistics.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
87%
No
13%
Activity: H$76,529
Settled as Yes on Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PST

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jan 4:19pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 5:21am PST by crowe: Obama won the popular vote (62 million to 55 million) as well as the election.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Settlement requested Fri 7th Nov 11:02am PST by rk725: Obama received the popular vote.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Settlement requested Fri 7th Nov 5:51pm PST by johnoday: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

Obama popular vote by millions more than McCain.
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:20am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 8pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (134)

134 predictions

3 weeks ago
johnoday predicted Yes (H$5,300 at 98%)
3 weeks ago
fourgrays predicted Yes (H$311 at 97%)
3 weeks ago
fourgrays predicted Yes (H$23 at 97%)
3 weeks ago
fourgrays predicted Yes (H$353 at 97%)
3 weeks ago
tpillon predicted Yes (H$100 at 95%)
more

Comments (11)

ow can you know when this sort of thing "usually occurs" when it's only happened once?
posted 20 weeks ago
It also happened at least two other times:

1876 - Hayes vs Tilden
1888 - Harrison vs Cleveland
posted 20 weeks ago
As a side note, the electorial college is a good thing. If the popular vote were counted, the candidates would only campaign in New York and California, ignoring the needs of the rest of the country.
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 curios
the electoral college is a bad thing.it nulls the voice of the people, and never forget its their vote should count from all states.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
@curios..read notabl's comment. the elector coll might not be perfect but its better than lettin a handful of states decide the prez.
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 curios
@dieseldog..........so what you are both really saying the people don't count? if that's the case why 18 months of razmataz
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 Erik
curios> Here's a wonderful, insightful essay concerning the electoral college...
a very comprehensive look:
http://www.fec.gov/pdf/eleccoll.pdf

And here, in the word's of Sgt. Friday, are the facts, just the facts:
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
@curios..techinally the electoral college can go againest the american people's vote. i'm no history buff and can't say if they ever have. i know in my life time they haven't. if they would there would be bigtime trouble. i still say its better than just letting the popular vote decide.
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 yonemoto
By "popular vote" do you mean plurality or majority?
posted 8 weeks ago
  10 yonemoto
2000:
Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4% (neither majority)

1996:
Clinton 49.24% Dole 40.71% (neither majority)

1992:
Clinton 43.0% Bush 37.7% (neither majority)

1968:
Nixon 43.4% Wallace 42.7%
posted 8 weeks ago
  11 chris[Admin]
@yonemoto - Whichever gets the higher vote tally. No absolute majority of popular votes is required
posted 5 weeks ago

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