Created Mon 21st Jan 4:19pm PST by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
All questions » Politics » ryanj 
Will the winner of the U.S. Presidential election receive the popular vote?
Current forecast: 79% chance 
3%
3%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 79% likely to happen (up 3% in last 1 day)
In the Gore/Bush election of 2000, Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote, and therefore did not win the election. It is possible for this to occur and this sought of election usually occurs after a full 2 term president leaves office (Bush).
Make your prediction!
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$34,364
Open question (no suspend date)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported on or the day after the election by the voting statistics.
Suspend date: None
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 40%
Action history:
Created Mon 21st Jan 4:19pm PST by ryanj
ryanj
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported on or the day after the election by the voting statistics. ... read all
Get widget!New!Predictions (114)
114 predictions
fourgrays
bigken1
curios
mork![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$50 at 21%)
phellen
crowe
jakethesnakeComments (10)
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score: 10
AllAfrica.com 2 days ago
with 34 ands New York with 31. The lowest are District of Columbia, Alaska, Delaware, Montana, Wyoming, Vermont, South Dakota and North Dakota, with three electoral votes each. The system has its problems. One is the likelihood, though rare, of a
score: 10
The Australian 3 days ago
MALCOLM Mackerras has predicted that Barack Obama will be the next US president (Inquirer, 11-12/10). In doing so, he makes several observations which invite further analysis. At the 2008 election, the national economy will take precedence
score: 10
SiliconValley.com 3 days ago
But that's one electoral vote for every 663,000 residents, compared with one vote for every 174,000 residents of Wyoming. Defenders of the Electoral College, such as the late historian Theodore H. White, say the system confers legitimacy on close winners
score: 10
San Jose Mercury News 3 days ago
WASHINGTON ? Imagine the exciting presidential campaign coming down to a few states. On election night, Barack Obama takes Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada to add to the states that went Democratic in 2004. But John McCain holds onto all the other states
score: 10
The Australian 5 days ago
Both in 2000 and again in 2004 the two most strongly Democratic states were Massachusetts (12 electors) and Rhode Island (four electors). If we add 12 plus four plus three we get the cumulative number 19, which appears on the third row on the Democratic
1876 - Hayes vs Tilden
1888 - Harrison vs Cleveland
a very comprehensive look:
http://www.fec.gov/pdf/eleccoll.pdf
And here, in the word's of Sgt. Friday, are the facts, just the facts:
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/
Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4% (neither majority)
1996:
Clinton 49.24% Dole 40.71% (neither majority)
1992:
Clinton 43.0% Bush 37.7% (neither majority)
1968:
Nixon 43.4% Wallace 42.7%
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