Will there be 10 confirmed cases of Dengue fever in the US before May 1, 2008 ?

Pretty ambiguous. Do you mean from today, or Jan 1, in the history of the U.S.

I trust the words i read in a market. There have already been quite a few more than 10 cases in the U.S. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D03E4DE163AF936A25752C1A960958260 I requested settlement.

Erik - that link is from 1996...

I took a look around (admittedly cursory) and I'm not sure how easy this one is going to be to settle. CDC says that all of the US cases so far have been from travellers returning from overseas. Would we count these? (Not sure where to find that number anyway).
http://www.cdc.gov/NCIDOD/DVBID/DENGUE/

Found another article suggesting a possible outbreak along the Texas/Mexico border which I think would more directly relate to the question. But... can't find any resolution to it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN09250731

Also, it is clear in the article that you won't be able to pick apart the people who got it while in Mexico (the majority) and the smaller number of people who haven't left Texas and therefore are true US cases.

All this to say: If you include people in the US with dengue who got it from somewhere else, 10 is WAY too low. If you don't include them I don't think you can find a settlement source.

Void now or keep around and hope? Makes no matter to me.

This question only relates to the time period between the creation of the question (March 20) until May 1.

That's not what the question says. There is no mention of that in the settle ments area. It's quite clear. There are no "qualifiers" to be found anywhere as far as time period. Only "before May 1, 2008." Admittedly, my referance is years ago but, I'm not the one who wrote the question. I repeat my request for settlement. There have, in fact, been more than 10 confirmed cases of Dengue fever in the US before May 1, 2008.

Jenniandboys- "all of the US cases so far have been from travellers returning from overseas" Doesn't matter...The cases are in the U.S. now. The question doesn't ask where they were contracted. If i cought syphilis in Canada...I'm a confirmed U.S. case of syphilis when i return to Iowa.

Erik - I've got no $ on this one, so I'm not about to fight you about it. I was just trying to point out that the question needs some clarification -- which its getting now. In my opinion:

If you count them then the initial odds are off.
If you don't count them I don't see how you will be able to settle the question.

I honestly don't care how it gets settled, I just thought there needed to be some clarification. (And tisha impressive response time!)

Erik - the relevant time period for all Hubdub questions begins from the time they are created, unless otherwise stated in the question or settlement details.

Indeed, congrats on the response time. I might add, i trust that the HubDub Gods either let this market move on or void it....certainly not change/edit the market in midstream. The way it is worded, it's a no-brainer. That's why i wagered on it. (i'm short on brains, I need the easy ones *grins* )

tisha-I was just double checking the rules, don't see that one anywhere.

Hi Erik - you're right, it's not explicitly stated as a rule (perhaps I should look into fixing this :-P). But to have the time period starting from any time in history preceding the question would be nonsensical - it's maybe clearer with other questions, like "Will there be a 8.0 earthquake anywhere in the world before 31 March" - of course there have been 8.0 earthquakes in the past, but the time period is taken to be after the question is created.

i thought a question was effective the moment it was posted , don't see any begin date in the question, so must have been "Yesterday at 8:34pm PDT", sure hope you didn't spend too much time researching Dengue fever.
LOL at #10- Erik

I would be in agreement to adding domestic-caught confirmed cases as in the Southwest US. Don't think it needs to added as i don't think there are too many Mosquitoes in montana right now. So just add the "Domestic" (as in "this is where I live" not "but my maid is from Aruba and she already has Dengue Fever"

If there are 10 or more cases in the US then there will be postings by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and /or the World Heath Organization (WHO)
which mainstream news services jump on

http://www.who.int/en/
http://www.cdc.gov/
both are also good sources for bird flu updates

that's certainly not what the question asks...I refer to #5 above, to save typing.

If the question is going to be different, then my wager would have certainly been different. I wagered on "Will there be 10 confirmed cases of Dengue fever in the US before May 1, 2008 ?" There is no begining date stated or inferred...or in the rules. Again, There have, infact, been hundreds of cases already. I say either void (and possibly re-word another market) or settle.

The question asks: "Will there be 10 confirmed cases of Dengue fever in the US before May 1, 2008 ?" According to The Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been hundreds of cases before 5/1/08. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D03E4DE163AF936A25752C1A960958260 After reviewing the rules and examining the settlement details I'm truly baffled as to why this market hasn't been settled.

ah erik the link you provided is from 1996

meanderingsearcger- Indeed, and it's before May 1, 2008. That's my point.

as erik can't seem to tell time yet, i vote for a void on this one

See comment #12 by question creator for settlement clarification.

Changing the question mid-stream, I see. No where is a beginning date stated. I'm cashing out. This is absurd. Never before have I heard of changing a market after wagers have been placed.

meanderingsearcher, I can tell time just fine, thank you. Now, if you could learn to phrase the wording in your future markets to correctly reflect your intent, we'd all be much better off.

LOL..this is hilarious: Erik, if there were 10 dengue cases before the question was created, then the outcome was already known, so it should be voided. So, either way you lose

mmm... this is a news prediction site, not a news archive site.

LOL..this is so silly...

erik, i think you need to define "we"
"we" as in a faction of one
"we" as in the residents of some micro-universe where the sky is a nice shade of purple
"we" as to mean the collective voice of all past, present, and future Hubdub users
who exactly are "we" erik

re comment 21- due to the "fistinctive" nature of erik's going all "pic4ded" i am going to assume that he doesn't know/care/understand the meaning of being "spitzered"

All who are not quite as pompous as yourself for not admitting that you assumed things that you were too, evidently, lazy to spell out in your market. And newswrangler, you're correct. But, this is also not an assumption site. Wagers should only be made and settled on the facts as presented.

then bet on the facts and move on

...searcher, I moved on quite awhile ago, when I cashed out lol

I think its obvious that this question refers to the time period of March 20th, 2008 - May 1st, 2008

COME ON!!! SETTLE ALREADY!!!