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Created Sat 22nd Mar 11:49am PDT by meanderingsearcher
All questions » Science » Natural Disasters » 

Will there be a 5.5 (or greater) earthquake within 50 miles of San Francisco before Nov.1 , 2008 ?

Settled as No

No such earthquakes.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/quakes_big.php


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source and/or http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
16%
No
84%
Activity: H$53,431
Settled as No on Sat 1st Nov 3:26pm PDT

Suspend date: Sun 26th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 3:26pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 26th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 22nd Mar 11:49am PDT by meanderingsearcher
Suspended Sun 26th Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 1st Nov 7:54am PDT by biloxibeachboy: I didn't find a report of an earthquake before today.
Settled as 'No' Sat 1st Nov 3:26pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: No such earthquakes.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/quakes_big.php

Suspend date: Sun 26th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 3:26pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 26th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (164)

164 predictions

5 weeks ago
brantestes predicted Yes (H$840 at 12%)
5 weeks ago
biloxibeachboy predicted No (H$20 at 92%)
5 weeks ago
rpg1377 predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
5 weeks ago
chull predicted No (H$250 at 91%)
5 weeks ago
paulgrayson predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 shadowfax
bravo and kudos for this question.
posted 36 weeks ago
  2 meanderingsearcher
i found it interesting as oct. 24th is the 140 (average) year anniversary for san fran to get a big one
posted 36 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
lucky that is in the given date range, I'll go for "yes" in this case :)
posted 36 weeks ago
  4 buckeyetom
Remember when SF got rocked during the World Series? October is the Official Earthquake Month in California.
posted 8 weeks ago
  5 rpg1377
When is this cashing out? Tomorrow?
posted 5 weeks ago
  6 tisha[Admin]
It will be settled on the 1st November
posted 5 weeks ago
  7 rpg1377
Aww. I wasn't aware the money would be tied up in a suspension for the rest of the week. Oh well :).
posted 5 weeks ago

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