Created Sat 19th Apr 11:01am PST by junkie_1

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Will there be a bomb explosion ( more than 10 people killed ) anywhere within 1 mile of the vicinity of the main Olympics complex at Beijing during Olympics 2008?

Forecast: No (86% chance )

Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 86% (unchanged in last 1 day)

The chances of any such protests arise from the recent developments in Tibet , but will the Tibetan freedom movement spiral out of control.
(personal thought : I hope this doesn't happen)

% chance over time

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	Yes	14%
	No	86%

Total activity: H$2,524

Question suspends in 10 weeks

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 

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Details

• Question status: Open
• Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 11:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)
• Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
• Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

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Created Sat 19th Apr 11:01am PST by junkie_1

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Comments

  1 junkie_1

The one mile radius will be decided by using a proper scale and the maps available on Google earth.

posted 4 weeks ago

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Prediction Graph

Will there be a bomb explosion ( more than 10 people killed ) anywhere within 1 mile of the vicinity of the main Olympics complex at Beijing during Olympics 2008?

Yes

Recent predictions

1 week ago

trashmagnet predicted Yes (H$20)

2 weeks ago

ozyth predicted No (H$50)

3 weeks ago

darklegends predicted No (H$100)

4 weeks ago

haagendazs predicted No (H$50)

4 weeks ago

whtimo predicted No (H$500)

4 weeks ago

whtimo predicted No (H$293)

4 weeks ago

epicur predicted No (H$110)

4 weeks ago

kruijs predicted No (H$300)