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Will there be a change to second preference voting before the next general election in Britain?

Current forecast: 18% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 18% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

There's been talk that Labour might consider voting reform before the next general election, and that it might include second preference voting to give MPs more reliable mandates. Do we think this will happen?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
18%
No
82%
Activity: H$15,834
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 17th Apr 6:41am PDT by lloydshep

Suspend date: None
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Predictions (23)

23 predictions

6 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$400 at 83%)
6 weeks ago
ian_dunham predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
7 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$5,000 at 84%)
8 weeks ago
aradnuk predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
8 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$500 at 19%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
no, we don't think so.
posted 32 weeks ago
  2 rogerkni
The story, "Labour Faces the Abyss," in today's sidebar, and at http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r1609466775&f=9946
might concentrate a few minds in that party's leadership and make them seriously consider the partisan advantages of a second-preference (aka "instant runoff") voting system.
posted 10 weeks ago

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