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Will there be a nuclear disaster in the UK by end 2010?

Current forecast: 4% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 4% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

A country's got to get its energy from somewhere and nuclear has its advantages. But at what cost?
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
4%
No
96%
Activity: H$1,989
Question suspends in 2 years
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: The BBC or Guardian or Times has to announce that a 'nuclear disaster' or similar has occured on UK soil, causing at least one direct death.

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 4%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jan 5:01pm PST by tomg[Admin]
Edited Mon 10th Mar 4:40am PDT by tisha[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: The BBC or Guardian or Times has to announce that a 'nuclear disaster' or similar has occured on UK soil, causing at least one direct death.... read all

 

Predictions (15)

15 predictions

13 weeks ago
alexj predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
23 weeks ago
jlinde predicted No (H$20 at 95%)
24 weeks ago
deathreapdude predicted Yes (H$50 at 4%)
27 weeks ago
teddykgb predicted Yes (H$100 at 6%)
30 weeks ago
openwheel predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)
more

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