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Will there be a referendum on independence before the next Scottish Parliament election?

Background: The primary aim of Scotland's Governing party, the SNP (www.snp.org), is to bring full independence to Scotland. However, the SNP is a minority party and therefore cannot conduct a referendum without support from another party.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
30%
No
70%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Sun 1st May 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 2008 8:08am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Sat 12th Apr 2008 11:48am PST by chris[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 1st May 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (49)

3 weeks ago
yogi predicted No (H$100 at 70%)
15 weeks ago
lee1 predicted No (H$50 at 73%)
16 weeks ago
ianochaye predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)
16 weeks ago
chewwilkinson predicted Yes (H$20 at 30%)
19 weeks ago
euan14 predicted Yes (H$100 at 30%)

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