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Will there be a report of Pirates seizing a boat during the month of May?

Forecast: No (66% chance 8% )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 66% (up 8% in last 1 day)

There were at least 2 reported attacks by pirates during the month of April. Will the trend continue?

4/20/08
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080420/wl_afp/spainsomaliapiracy

4/4/08
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4590912

While I was very tempted to go with an over/under type question - and after my last attempt with the 420 question, I'm going to try to keep this simple and say yes or no, as reported by any major news source....will there be a report of pirates "seizing" (actually boarding and taking possession of) any ship during the month of May 2008?

 
Prediction history
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Yes
34%
No
66%
Total activity: H$49,985
Question suspends in 2 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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  • Question status: Open
  • Suspend date: Sat 31st May 11:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
  • Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
  • Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Created Sun 20th Apr 7:45pm PST by mrperfkt
Suspended Wed 30th Apr 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 5th May 11:47pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: I've extended this to the end of May. Let me know if you want me to suspend it a couple of days before.
Keywords: pirates, capture, seize
1 7 30 365
day(s)

score: 10

Patriotic pirates


When a Spanish fishing boat, with its cargo and crew, was seized off the Horn of Africa recently, it prompted Madrid to call for the extradition of...
Page: 1
  1 No user imageharveyb
Will this be settled based on seizure of any boat or a ship? The title says "boat" the small text says "ship" and the settlement details don't say either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship says "A ship is usually large enough to carry its own boats, such as lifeboats, dinghies, or runabouts. A rule of thumb used is "a boat can fit on a ship, but a ship can't fit on a boat"." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat has similar size-based defination
posted 2 weeks ago
  2 mork
If they seize a ship they will also have seized the lifeboat.
posted 2 weeks ago
  3 kruijs
if they seized the lifeboat, did they also seize the ship?
posted 2 weeks ago
  4 mrperfkt
This is why I don't create these types of questions. :)

I'm not sure how to answer this. To make it more confusing, the first article I cited uses "boat" in the headline, then interchanges "ship" and "fishing boat" throughout the article. The second article uses the word "ship" in the headline, then uses the word "yacht" throughout the article.

Merriam Webster defines boat as a "small vessel" or "ship"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/boat
and ship is defined as "a large seagoing vessel" or "boat"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ship

I recently went to a boat show, where many of the "boats" (i.e. yachts) had life boats, jet skis, even helicopters on board. However, none of those were referred to as ships.

As the above news stories included crews of 26 and 30 respectively and the fact that pirates are most likely going to be interested in attacking a "vessel" large enough to carry significant cargo, I would probably go with the above "rule of thumb" and say either a boat OR ship large enough to carry another boat, lifeboat, dinghie or runabout would be good for settlement.

I have a headache now!
posted 2 weeks ago
  5 kruijs
and you tried to make it simple, after your 420 "debacle" ...
well, I think we should not "split hairs" on the term ship/boat/yacht.
It will be in the media whenever another means of transportation floating constructions is seized by pirates.
keep going creating questions that are not US election nor US sports related ... everything is fine to me :)
posted 2 weeks ago
  6 kruijs
Could any HubDubSpellChecker take responsibility of comment #5, please?
posted 2 weeks ago
Application of the "common sense" rule suggests that it should be any vessel that is seized by pirates at sea.
posted 2 weeks ago
  8 mrperfkt
Yeah! I like the common sense rule! Hopefully we have a consensus here. I had kind of assumed that it would have to be at least an average sized vessel, as there would be less to gain by attacking a dinghy (at least that's what the pirates that I've talked to would say). lol

<-----I can hear it now..."how do you define 'average sized vessel'"

Oh, and even after all of the debate over the "420 debacle," it was settled as "yes," despite the point being made that the settlement was based on a specific source and the comments pointing that out.

On that note, I can't promise not to do more sports questions as I am a big sports fan...and they're straight forward! :)
posted 2 weeks ago
  9 randburg
"It will be in the media whenever another means of transportation floating constructions is seized by pirates."

I think that kruijs has provided an excellent description for settlement of this prediction in Comment 5.

HubdubSpellCheckSupervisor
posted 2 weeks ago
  10 kruijs
tnx :)
posted 2 weeks ago
  11 mork
Will Common Sense Prevail in 2008?
Y 51%
N 49%
posted 2 weeks ago
  12 rohan
Uhhh..why?
posted 2 weeks ago
  13 mrperfkt
You're more optimistic than me on that one, mork...I'll put $H500 on No. :)
posted 2 weeks ago
  14 mork
I think there is 200 to 300 ocean going vessels that are intercepted by pirates every year. Many more apparently go unreported due to a desire to reduce publicity and insurance claims.

The settlement of this question will come down to filtering through media reports unless mainstream media's newfound trend of reporting these incidents continues.

I think the first incident was only reported on because they French sent in special forces,
posted 2 weeks ago
  15 mork
I'm gonna match your $H500 on Yes. :p
posted 2 weeks ago
  16 kruijs
But you didn't ask, whether it happens, mork. You asked whether there will be a report of it.
I stay with my "NO" stakes.
posted 2 weeks ago
  17 mork
I think they eye is on the pirates.
Does CNN have drone flights?
I'm glad we don't all agree.
What a bore this would be.
posted 2 weeks ago
  19 mrperfkt
Nice timing! Looked like that video was released today. See...I should have gone with the over/under question! And those were definitely ships in the video! lol
posted 2 weeks ago
  20 mork
Semantics...You got a good question here.
posted 2 weeks ago
  22 mrperfkt
aaarrrrrr!

I saw that your balloon question was on "featured stories," mork. way to go!
posted 2 weeks ago
  23 mork
thx perfkt
posted 2 weeks ago
  24 mrperfkt
Yo ho, yo ho...a pirate's life for me (isn't so bad after all)! lol
Story on 4/27/08 says that pirates were paid $1.2 million for freeing the Spanish "boat."
While the story says that the pirates "disappeared into their villages," will they take their 1.2 million (and that's not H$!) to sip on pina coladas, living the high life, or will they be back in May to help me settle this question?! :)

On a more serious note...doesn't it seem like paying the ransom only encourages this to continue?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/27/pirates.spain.ap/index.html
posted 2 weeks ago
  25 mrperfkt
This story was in the top 10 most popular on CNN today...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/04/29/pirates/index.html?iref=hpmostpop#cnnSTCVideo

Note, I did set this question to suspend at the end of April. Maybe I should have left it open longer. Oh well.
posted 1 week ago
I've extended the suspend date to the end of May. Let me know if you want me to pull the suspend date back a couple of days.

(Lesley's computer is broken so I'm World editor for the day)
posted 6 days ago
  27 mrperfkt
Okay. Thanks Nigel. Enjoy being world editor for the day!
posted 6 days ago

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Will there be a report of Pirates seizing a boat during the month of May?
Yes
23 hours ago
neverlupus predicted No (H$4,579)
1 day ago
No user imagesman1955 predicted No (H$100)
1 day ago
silvermchic predicted No (H$100)
2 days ago
No user imagejpainter predicted No (H$150)
2 days ago
bcguelph predicted No (H$100)
2 days ago
No user imagewyrm predicted Yes (H$100)
2 days ago
No user imageobliverous predicted Yes (H$823)
2 days ago
skipper predicted Yes (H$300)
2 days ago
No user imageozarkguy predicted Yes (H$20)
2 days ago
neverlupus predicted No (H$10,000)