Created Sun 20th Apr 11:01am PST by junkie_1

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Will there be an assasination attempt on any former president of the United States of America (George Bush Jr. excluded) before the end of 2008?

Forecast: No (93% chance )

Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 93% (unchanged in last 1 day)

I hope that I do not need to define what an assassination attempt is.
President list ( not too many are alive)-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States

% chance over time

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	Yes	7%
	No	93%

Total activity: H$1,047

Question suspends in 31 weeks

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 

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Details

• Question status: Open
• Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (31 weeks to go)
• Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
• Initial likelihoods: Yes: 7%

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Created Sun 20th Apr 11:01am PST by junkie_1

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Related News

This news is found automatically based on keywords given by the question creator: president

1 7 30 365

day(s)

score: 10

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score: 10

Zimbabwe: Presidential runoff set seven weeks after election

South Florida Sun-Sentinel 5 days ago

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score: 10

President Bush, welcome to the 2008 presidential campaign!

Beltway Confidential: chron.com 6 days ago

Page: 1

Comments

  1 junkie_1

This will be settled only if there is an official announcement , if anyone throws three snowballs at the President and breaks 5 teeth it will not be considered an assassination attempt.

posted 4 weeks ago

  2 gregmatta

Why would one think up a question like this?

posted 4 weeks ago

  3 kruijs

weeird :)

posted 4 weeks ago

  4 kruijs

I would have voted yes if GW wasn't excluded :)

posted 4 weeks ago

  5 junkie_1

Lets say I am an eccentric person ;)

posted 4 weeks ago

  6 kruijs

okay, but that doesn't frighten me at all :-P

posted 4 weeks ago

  7 anaverageamerican

There is no President George Bush, Jr. Bush 41 is George H.W. Bush. Bush 43 is George W. Bush. Hence, he is _not_ George Bush, Jr.

So you can go ahead and invest in "Yes" kruijs 8^)

posted 4 weeks ago

  8 kruijs

wow, alright, thanks for the clarification, A3

posted 4 weeks ago

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Prediction Graph

Will there be an assasination attempt on any former president of the United States of America (George Bush Jr. excluded) before the end of 2008?

Yes

Recent predictions

4 weeks ago

epicur predicted No (H$7)

4 weeks ago

corky predicted No (H$500)

4 weeks ago

kruijs predicted No (H$20)