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Created Mon 11th Feb 2:06am PST by horatiomonty
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Will there be an attempt to assassinate Barack Obama before 20 January 2009?

Settled as Yes

An affidavit filed by a Secret Service agent in U.S. District Court claims that Raymond Hunter Geisel, of Marathon, Florida, threatened to "kill, kidnap and cause bodily harm upon a major candidate for president of the United States, that is, Senator Barack Obama."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/08/new-details-man-held-for-alleged-obama-assassination-threat/

Background:

Barack Obama is compared to JFK by many. If he comes to office, he would be the US' first black president. This might upset racist groups in America and some of them might be militant.
The following events are considered to be an attempt to assassinate Obama:

- Unsuccesful attempt to kill Obama (by any means)
- Successful attempt to kill Obama (by any means)
- Plot to kill Obama, revealed and reported by a major mainstream news source.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
26%
No
74%
Activity: H$19,272
Settled as Yes on Fri 8th Aug 5:55pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 8th Aug 5:55pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 8%

Action history:

Created Mon 11th Feb 2:06am PST by horatiomonty
Edited Mon 11th Feb 4:43am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Settled as 'Yes' Fri 8th Aug 5:55pm PDT by destry[Admin]: An affidavit filed by a Secret Service agent in U.S. District Court claims that Raymond Hunter Geisel, of Marathon, Florida, threatened to "kill, kidnap and cause bodily harm upon a major candidate for president of the United States, that is, Senator Barack Obama."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/08/new-details-man-held-for-alleged-obama-assassination-threat/

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 8th Aug 5:55pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (55)

55 predictions

16 weeks ago
nigeleccles[Admin] predicted No (H$500 at 74%)
16 weeks ago
nigeleccles[Admin] predicted No (H$500 at 73%)
17 weeks ago
l80bug predicted Yes (H$20 at 28%)
17 weeks ago
mtt9701 predicted No (H$1,000 at 70%)
17 weeks ago
jackpot11 predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 fingers_of_fury
I made a little H$ on this settlement Yeah!!!... I would have wagered much more if I'd known that attempts include threats.
posted 16 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
I settled this as a Yes because there was an official affidavit filed by a secret service agent that was reported on mainstream news. I have experience in the workings of the secret service and they don't play around. Every threat is taken seriously, and those threats that rise to charges are usually very well founded. I think this would be a good market to create again, maybe starting odds about 50%.
posted 16 weeks ago

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Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags


score: 10
FLA. MAN ARRESTED FOR THREATENING TO KILL OBAMA: Authorities said he kept military-style gear and weapons in his hotel room. .

EURweb 16 weeks ago
*Secret Service arrested a Florida man Saturday on charges he threatened to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. The Associated Press reports that 22-year-old Raymond Hunter Geisel was taken into custody in Miami and was ordered

score: 10
New Details: Man held for alleged Obama assassination threat .

PrisonPlanet 16 weeks ago
on Thursday on charges he told classmates at a training seminar that he would kill Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama if he is elected, according to a law enforcement official and court documents. The threats came just days before Obama was

score: 10
Man Held In Threat On Obama .

Tampa Tribune 16 weeks ago
his hotel room and car appeared in court Thursday on charges he threatened to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. Raymond Hunter Geisel, 22, was arrested by the Secret Service on Saturday in Miami and was ordered held without bail

score: 10
Man Arrested For Death Threat Against Barack Obama .

RTTNews.com 16 weeks ago
A man arrested Saturday in Miami for allegedly threatening to assassinate presumptive U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama was denied bail Thursday.According to a Secret Service affidavit, Raymond Hunter Geisel, 22, was in a training class for bail

score: 10
Man Arrested for Obama Assassination Threat .

New York Magazine 16 weeks ago
a story like this: Raymone Hunter Geisel was arrested by federal authorities in Florida for threatening to assassinate Barack Obama. He is being held without bail. The Secret Service found a loaded handgun, knives, dozens of rounds of ammunition, body

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