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Will there be another Russian aircraft within the US no-fly zone before Sep., 2008 ?

Hubdub users say: Yes (56% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Yes with a probability of 56% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
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Yes
56%
No
44%
Activity: H$8,789
Question suspends in 6 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Mar 8:51am PDT by No user imagesantosh
Edited Fri 28th Mar 1:06pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
2 weeks ago
No user imagerookie predicted No (H$50)
4 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$20)
9 weeks ago
notablenotices predicted Yes (H$1)
10 weeks ago
No user imagekolia39 predicted Yes (H$100)
14 weeks ago
No user imagekirra predicted Yes (H$100)
15 weeks ago
No user imagespace_oracle predicted No (H$20)
15 weeks ago
No user imageduketate predicted Yes (H$50)
16 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted Yes (H$3,000)
16 weeks ago
No user imageyossarian predicted Yes (H$50)
16 weeks ago
No user imagehats predicted Yes (H$50)
  1 randburg
Since there is NO background to this question: WHAT is a "US Strategic asset/interest"? Does this refer to a war zone? OR to a US "no-fly" zone? Or too close to an American warship?

What are you asking us to predict?
posted 16 weeks ago
aside from the somewhat vague wording, this is an excellent question that i thought about posing a few days ago. i look forward to some clarification so i may participate in this market.
posted 16 weeks ago
i agree with dan
i read the story yesterday where the american jet fighters were tagging along with the russian bomber. the americans planned to tag-a-long for a while because they brought their own refueling tanker for the jet fighters
i'll see if i can find the story
posted 16 weeks ago
  5 randburg
Thank you meanderingsearcher! So this refers to any "US air-exclusion zone", essentially a "no-fly zone" OR flying permit required zone.
posted 16 weeks ago
  6 lesley[Admin]
I've edited the title and put in a suspend date. Initial likelihoods seem a little high though, don't you think?

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 16 weeks ago
it could happen, they mess with each (america/russia) every 5 or 6 months. both sides probably bored so they take a cruise through each others airspace. only the americans are less likely to report it unless there is an incident
posted 16 weeks ago
  8 shadowfax
i like this informative question
posted 16 weeks ago
now it's only every 6-8 months.
when I was in the USMC, this kind of event happened all the time. I mean, 'like every other day or so'.

what happened in the film 'Top Gun' (where the russian boggies were playing games with the aircraft carrier), is just one example.

as Putin continues to flex his muscles, i believe, and bet that this will begin to happen more often.
posted 16 weeks ago
he has a long way to go from growl to bite, but certainly no lack of will to do it. there is another question around that queries the us' likelihood of "war" with russia by 2010. if it were clearly marked to include cold war, id have fat cash on the affirmative.
posted 16 weeks ago

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