Created Tue 15th Jan 4:31pm PST by 
sctrojan
All questions » General » Tragedy » sctrojan 
Will there be another US bridge disaster in 2008?
Current forecast: 10% chance 
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 10% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
Settlement details:
Reported by major news source. "Disaster" is defined as a bridge failure which leads to fatalities. The other Bridge disaster in 2008, was a bridge failure that led to casualties so they both meet up.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$18,828
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 24%
Action history:
Created Tue 15th Jan 4:31pm PST by sctrojan
sctrojan
Clarified Thu 7th Aug 7:14pm PDT by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Looking at the market and the posted background link I'm going to define "disaster" as a bridge failure which leads to fatalities. The other Bridge disaster in 2008, was a bridge failure that led to casualties so they both meet up.
ryanj: Looking at the market and the posted background link I'm going to define "disaster" as a bridge failure which leads to fatalities. The other Bridge disaster in 2008, was a bridge failure that led to casualties so they both meet up.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (47)
47 predictions
notablenotices![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$5 at 90%)
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swilsonComments (4)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Chicago Tribune 2 days ago
That we spend too little maintaining crucial spans that carry millions of vehicles a day. Democrats who control Minnesota's legislature decided to hire a law firm to explore whether the state's Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, and his Department of
score: 10
Chicago Tribune 2 days ago
That we spend too little maintaining crucial spans that carry millions of vehicles a day. Democrats who control Minnesota's legislature decided to hire a law firm to explore whether the state's Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, and his Department of
score: 10
CNN 2 weeks ago
about half as thick as they should have been were the likely cause of the August 1, 2007, bridge collapse in Minnesota that killed 13 people and injured 145. The gusset plates -- metal plates that are meant to strengthen joists -- are believed to have
score: 10
Houston Chronicle 2 weeks ago
WASHINGTON Critically important load-bearing calculations were inexplicably never performed during the design of a major bridge in Minnesota, setting up the catastrophic collapse of the span last year, a federal investigation concluded Friday. The
score: 10
CNN 2 weeks ago
that were about half as thick as they should have been were the likely cause of a 2007 bridge collapse in Minnesota that killed 13 people and injured 145. The gusset plates -- metal plates that are meant to strengthen joists -- are believed to have
If one person dies, or is seriously injured, that is a disaster for them...(and their family)..
definition needed... (this is a general weakness on hubdub - a working definition needed for all questions..)
Looking at the market and the posted background link I'm going to define "disaster" as a bridge failure which leads to fatalities. The other Bridge disaster in 2008, was a bridge failure that led to casualties so they both meet up.
Regards,
Ryan
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