Created Sun 2nd Mar 10:08am PST by sclossick

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Will there be protests in Beijing during the 2008 Summer Olympics that result in at least 5 fatalities?

Forecast: No (65% chance )

Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 65% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Will disgruntled citizens seek to use the background of the Olympic Games to draw attention to their grievances and will the government reaction be harsh?

% chance over time

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	Yes	35%
	No	65%

Total activity: H$12,364

Question suspends in 11 weeks

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 

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Details

• Question status: Open
• Suspend date: Thu 7th Aug 12pm PST (11 weeks to go)
• Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
• Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history

Created Sun 2nd Mar 10:08am PST by sclossick

Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:40pm PST by lesley

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Related News

This news is found automatically based on keywords given by the question creator: beijing, olympics

1 7 30 365

day(s)

score: 10

Spanish field hockey team's Beijing Olympics in doubt after two players test positive

Sports Illustrated 5 hours ago

The Spanish women's field hockey team could be banned from the Beijing Olympics after two of its players failed doping tests, the national ...

Page: 1

Comments

  1 sclossick

If there are fatalities, the Chinese government will want to know how I knew there would be.

posted 3 weeks ago

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Prediction Graph

Will there be protests in Beijing during the 2008 Summer Olympics that result in at least 5 fatalities?

Yes

Recent predictions

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