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Will there be protests in Beijing during the Olympics that result in at least 5 fatalities?

Settled as No

No such protests reported

Background:

Will disgruntled citizens seek to use the background of the Olympic Games to draw attention to their grievances and will the government reaction be harsh?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$78,530
Settled as No on Sun 24th Aug 2pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 24th Aug 2pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 2nd Mar 10:08am PST by sclossick
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:40pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Thu 7th Aug 1pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 11th Aug 2:14am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Question will suspend 3 full days prior to close of the games
Suspended Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 24th Aug 8:01am PDT by orlin: No
Settlement requested Sun 24th Aug 8:03am PDT by orlin: No
Settled as 'No' Sun 24th Aug 2pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: No such protests reported

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 24th Aug 2pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 22nd Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (110)

110 predictions

14 weeks ago
eckertkid predicted No (H$5,000 at 97%)
14 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 3%)
15 weeks ago
billcode predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
15 weeks ago
bedlam predicted Yes (H$50 at 3%)
15 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Yes (H$100 at 2%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 sclossick
If there are fatalities, the Chinese government will want to know how I knew there would be.
posted 31 weeks ago
  2 bigken1
I think there could be, but the govt will likely cover such things up, so how would we really know?

Perhaps the question should be "reported protests" that are allowed to be made public, or are under the eyes of foreign journalists... etc...

well, I am leaving my yes answer, just because i think there will be some, even if not reported...God knows..
posted 16 weeks ago
  4 yongke_yu
hahaha, all you haters got owned.
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 dmn322
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/9536

No protests with death as result? Doubt it.
posted 14 weeks ago

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