Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

Will there be reports of widespread vote rigging in the Zimbabwean election?

Settled as Yes

The electoral commission changed the rules to let police into the polling stations and votes will be counted centrally rather than at the station. Rigging seems inevitable surely?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
77%
No
23%
Activity: H$24,903
Settled as Yes on Sun 30th Mar 2:30pm PDT

Suspend date: Sun 30th Mar 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 30th Mar 2:30pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 85%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Mar 2:47pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Settlement requested Sat 29th Mar 7:38am PDT by jersjusttrolling: cnn ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/29/zimbabwe.election/index.html
Settlement requested Sat 29th Mar 9:06am PDT by randburg: But less than an hour after voting began at 7 a.m. (1 a.m. ET), both opposition factions said that in at least 19 polling stations, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission claimed to have "lost" the accreditation for the opposition's polling agent, so it refused to let the agent in.

Eddie Matsangaise of the Zimbabwe Exile Forum said he had heard reports that the names of long-dead white colonialist leaders were on voter lists, but voters who thought they were registered were turned away.

"Obviously they're not free and fair," Matsangaise said of the elections.

Settlement requested Sat 29th Mar 12:29pm PDT by orlin: "YES"

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2880883820080329
Suspended Sun 30th Mar 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 30th Mar 10:19am PDT by dan_the_omniscient: well, the opposition party alleges "widespread irregularities", but they also claim to be confident of victory. if they DO win, how widespread could the rigging have been?

perhaps a wait-and-see approach to settling this one is warranted?
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 30th Mar 2:30pm PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 30th Mar 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 30th Mar 2:30pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (48)

48 predictions

35 weeks ago
gaurav predicted No (H$1,000 at 19%)
35 weeks ago
gaurav predicted No (H$1,000 at 10%)
35 weeks ago
gaurav predicted No (H$6,500 at 24%)
35 weeks ago
dan_the_omniscient predicted No (H$100 at 6%)
35 weeks ago
eckertkid predicted Yes (H$41 at 95%)
more

Comments (16)

  1 destry[Admin]
This question seems open for alot of debate. What is considered widespread?
posted 35 weeks ago
  2 randburg
With all due respect, you can't possibly imagine what an African election is like. Police presence is there: NOT to insure fair voting, but to insure that "the people" vote for the right person. Intimidation is rife, active, and expected. The threats are real and will be carried out. Many people have never voted before and come "in from the bush" to do so. They are "instructed" how to vote (who to vote for). So many proudly put their X on a piece of paper for the first time, but have no idea what was on the paper, let alone who they voted for. Many people will stand in long lines for twelve hours or more and never vote. Truckloads of paper ballots appear, disappear, or don't show up for voting. Standing in line does not mean that you will actually vote. After walking for a day to get to the polling booth, they are told to come back another time. -- And so it goes in most African dictatorships.

I have seen this -- FIRSTHAND -- several times.

This is largely the legacy of American diplomat Andrew Young and his British counterpart Owens, who engaged in shuttle diplomacy to "free" Rhodesia and "enable" the democratic dictatorship of Robert Mugabe. Robert Mugabe is Africa's longest ruling leader, from the very inception of Zimbabwe.
posted 35 weeks ago
...and dont forget george bush!
posted 35 weeks ago
  4 lesley[Admin]
I'm going to wait until the results are officially announced before settling this one. I'm hoping it's going to be pretty clear one way or another...time will tell.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 35 weeks ago
  5 randburg
RESULTS of the election are NOT really the question here. The entire question here is: "Will there be widespread reports of vote rigging.."?

The question does not ask which side will win or whether it will be a free and fair election (which it won't be). If there was no widespread evidence of vote rigging, it would not necessarily be an unfair election IF Mugabe actually won legally.

jersjusttrolling and randburg have both submitted official newsreports from major news sources of "widespread reports of vote rigging". The outcome of THIS PREDICTION has already been reached and should be settled as YES.
posted 35 weeks ago
well, the opposition party alleges "widespread irregularities", but they also claim to be confident of victory. if they DO win, how widespread could the rigging have been?

perhaps a wait-and-see approach to settling this one is warranted?
posted 35 weeks ago
well, are "reports" allegations or evidence?
posted 35 weeks ago
  8 randburg
Even if the opposition wins -- which would be a major achievement and victory for a possible new Zimbabwe -- it will NOT cancel out "reports of widespread vote rigging", which have been reported by top news sources.

Again, if we read the question: the question does NOT ask who will win: it asks "Will there be reports of widespread vote rigging in the Zimbabwean election?" And the answer is YES: there are already several existing reports from major reliable news sources. You can find them under "settlement details" above.

posted 35 weeks ago
  9 randburg
Settlement rules: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
posted 35 weeks ago
thats another thing. the "reports" smack of katrina-reporting. "well we werent there, but we *heard*..."
posted 35 weeks ago
let's not get festinctive on this one.

re: the question is 'will there be reports'.
the answer is "yes", there have been reports.

why all the second-guessing.
pls settle now!, or escalate to getsatifaction. If admin doesn't, I will.

posted 35 weeks ago
I find it interesting that there are Hubdub admins creating such poorly structured, ambiguous and contentious questions. I felt badly when I created the question, "Will alleged pieces of the dead spy satellite show up on Ebay?", which caused a lot of controversy, and I have strived to only create questions that are unambiguous and can be settled objectively since. I'm not surprised by the general poor quality of questions created by users, but I would think the admins would hold themselves to a higher standard. To do so would be self-serving, since I'm sure the category admins spend considerably more time dealing with contentious questions/settlements than on the run-of-the-mill variety.

I'm not casting stones at any individual admins, or users, just pointing out an area for improvement. I think the entire Hubdub community, users and admins, could do a much better job of creating well structured questions. I find myself flagging many questions in which I would invest, if they were properly constructed.
posted 35 weeks ago
  13 lesley[Admin]
re anaverageamerican - yes, I hold my hands up, it was a potentially "deadly" question with distictively spitzerish tendencies and I realised it as soon as I'd posted it. No excuses for sloppyness. Sorry guys.

Lesley.
posted 35 weeks ago
  14 randburg
"The independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network's monitors reported a heavy police presence at polling stations, ostensibly to help illiterate voters and allowed under a belated presidential decree that breaks an agreement signed with the opposition. The opposition said it was intimidation.

Biti and his party have said their agents and supporters were barred from polling stations in several districts, ballot boxes were stuffed, and election rolls were inflated with dead or fictitious people."

This is a direct quote from AP, Associated Press.

As jersjusttrolling said:

"let's not get fistinctive on this one.

re: the question is 'will there be reports'.
the answer is "yes", there have been reports".

Regardless of who wins the election, the reports STAND.


posted 35 weeks ago
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/03/29/zimbabwe.election/index.html
"The Zimbabwean government has denied CNN and other international news organizations permission to enter the country to report on the elections."

does this count as "reports"? more like reports *of* reports. "side A said 'side B sucks,' and side B said 'no, side A sucks!" exactly the same source of the widely discredited katrina reporting. considering the sources, i couldnt make myself go all the way thru the two articles cited in the settlement requests again, but did anyone reporting for these agencies actually SEE anything for themselves? or is it just the reporting of party rhetoric?
posted 35 weeks ago
just by chance, i was cruising thru my voided predictions, when...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/By_March_20th_how_high_will_the_reported_death_toll_in_Tibet_be_4404

not that im suggesting a void, but of the necessity of "independent" reports in settling markets.
posted 35 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more