Will this Question Correctly Predict Whether the HD Community Will Successfully Predict the Outcome of this Event?

my head hurts... HubDerivatives...

Mine too .. kids 8^)

LOL, I love recursion.

= )

If you bet YES on the first, NO on the second, and YES on the third, do you break even? ;)

It depends on the odds, and hence on the predictions themselves. I haven't taken positions on my questions yet, but I'm thinking Yes on both.

If you bet at all on the first derivative, you want to bet yes on this one.
Right?? because betting no here would say that your bet on the first one is wrong!

unless you are hedging. it might be fun to have a whole category for derivatives. i like how it brings attention to the whole idea behind predictive markets -- that they actually do correctly predict things better than any other method. except maybe they don't, or maybe only in certain circumstances.

For derivative lovers.
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_well_can_the_Hubdub_community_predict_the_behaviour_of_the_world_markets_next_week_3327/view
Enjoy....

HubDerivatives - I love it!

Keep up the good work Infernalmachine

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Ed)

wouldn't betting no negate the question ?

WOW infernal, I like your thinkin' man! Hehehe, this is sooo much fun! I feel like my brain is on a hamster wheel and I'm running with one eye open while chewing on a gum ball :-P Hahaha, okay so it's not thattt complicated ;-) ... I trade stock options IRL, so I love hedging, or playing ups and downs simultaneously, it really dig this stuff ... I know this is not totally related but you may like it, have you ever heard of the Elliott Wave Theory aka Elliott Wave Principle? Man, that is deep analytics, if you like that sort of thing, predicting market trends and such ... Just a heads up, you seem like a numbers kind of guy.

lucidstates

Numbers kind of guy? I thought InfernalMachine claimed to be a poet elsewhere in the comments 8^)

it can be any combination w/o going against yourself..since the odds may change. i voted yes on the 2nd, and if i vote no on this one, i'm saying that i'm right on the 2nd one but the current majority is going to be wrong. this is awesome.