Will this question be voided?

Very good I cannot bet for twelve hours, but will that be enough to out fox the gamers?

Of course I can create a new account and bet accordingly, which I have done but I only bet $1.00.

Any other ideas on how to game the system?

I hope everyone realizes that I am trying to improve this system.

Is the rule now that you can't bet on your own prediction for 12 hours?

See the new rule below, but you are correct.


"This question is less than 12 hours old
As you created the question you cannot make a prediction on it until it is 12 hours old. This helps us to prevent users gaming the system."

Thanks! I actually suggested something similar to them, although I'm not claiming credit (or taking blame!) for the new rule.

awesome....i suggested this too, altho it was only a two hour delay...i also asked them about the graphs moving way up and then down immediately as tho someone was pumping money into a question and then cashing out in order to up their money and they said they were watching people's accounts for it...glad they're responding to the cheaters so quickly.

I've noticed those spikes as well. It appears to me that it can be done, but only by the "heavy hitters" with lots of hubdub cash.

You wouldn't need a ton of H$ if you select a prediction with little prior activity. Here's how it would work: You make two separate predictions, one right after the other, obviously both betting on the same outcome. Assuming no one else is active on that question just then, your second prediction will bump up the first. You cash out both with a profit.

I just tried that. I bet $20 twice in a row. You are correct, my first bet bumped up a dollar, but, when I went to cash out of the second, I lost a dollar. Wash.

At the risk of getting "flamed" I might mention that some type of "gaming" (depending upon what you mean by the term) can actually be helpful to the site. For example, look at the many questions regarding the superbowl. There are "arbitrage" opportunities there that probably do two things of benefit to hubdub. (1) those who engage in the arb assist the prediction process (just as they do in REAL markets) and (2) they probably improve the liquidity of the market (so it is more interesting - there is not much interesting in voting, for example that Jesus Christ will appear or not by the end of the year, and then waiting for a year to collect your $2).

I think a lack of liquidity really hurts prediction markets. A good example is IEM. That one is dead most of the time, but it is really hopping shortly before the national party conventions and before the national elections.

How did the winnings pay out?

Do we have any explanation as to why this was voided? They don't seem to have paid out the proper winnings, but it was overnight, and I'm not so into this that I'm recording my positions before going to bed!

doloop: great post. If HD is to be a good predictor then the users have to be allowed to place arb bets... I can't imagine that they would mind, but if they did, it would be difficult to prevent arb bets on 2 different questions which depend on essentially the same outcome.