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Will this question receive over $350,000 in predictions by midnight February 11, 2008 (12:00AM) Eastern Standard Time?

Voided

Is this a new record? Can Hubdub players bring it on?

Spread the word! Email your friends!


Settlement details: As determined by the Hubdub Team. $350,001 in predictions or more must be placed on this question before 12:00AM Eastern Standard Time on February 11, 2008.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Yes
3%
No
97%
Voided Wed 13th Feb 4:44am PST

Suspend date: Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 5th Feb 5:32am PST by electroaffinity
Edited Sun 10th Feb 6:51pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Mon 11th Feb 2:10pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Tue 12th Feb 1:03pm PST by robuk[Admin]
Previous action withdrawn Wed 13th Feb 4:39am PST by robuk[Admin]
Voided Wed 13th Feb 4:44am PST by robuk[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (309)

309 predictions

42 weeks ago
bitz predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
42 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted Yes (H$20 at 8%)
42 weeks ago
pepe predicted No (H$463 at 92%)
42 weeks ago
pete840264 predicted No (H$50 at 91%)
42 weeks ago
meanderingsearcher predicted Yes (H$20 at 9%)
more

Comments (24)

Can we stop with the self-referential questions already?
posted 43 weeks ago
  2 heyy_joe
talk about laming up the whole system here. this needs to be voided
posted 43 weeks ago
  3 mcnamara
VOID~
posted 43 weeks ago
Thats what I want to here... : )

But on what grounds should it be voided?

My point is that questions need to be vetted in someway before they are posted.
posted 43 weeks ago
  5 swilson
I guess this is the first self-referential question I've seen. I think it's pretty clever actually.
posted 43 weeks ago
I think that users should have a limited amount of questions they can create. There will be a "question rep". If your question gets voided you lose your rep and can create even less questions in a given time period than before. If your question doesn't get voided then you gain rep and can create more questions.
posted 43 weeks ago
  7 ratel
I like meta questions but they should at least be about something, like a change hubdub will make. but you're trying to make a point. I think the system could deal with this without having to vett questions by the simple fact that no one will vote on questions like this and so they won't show up high on the list of questions.

I don't think pre vetting questions is feasible if they want to grow, even this whole system of on-staff category editors is probably going to get unwieldy if hubdub gets popular. I agree with end_in_sight but I would suggest letting people create as many questions as they like but judging their reputation based on how many people answer their questions as well as considering voids and reviews from users.
posted 43 weeks ago
Very Salient points by ratel and end_in_sight. Any other ideas out there?
posted 43 weeks ago
  9 shadowfax
I like the idea of rating questions and think this one in particular is quite clever.
posted 42 weeks ago
this question is particularly intriguing. but it definitely alters the news/current events aspect.
posted 42 weeks ago
  11 yakko
Where can you see the current amount wagered on this question?
posted 42 weeks ago
  12 nubbins
If you bet on a question like this, it's only your fault if you lose money when it's voided!
posted 42 weeks ago
  13 measure
I think you get your original stake back if a question is voided.

I've emailed the operators of this site with an idea to somewhat fix the system... Before a proposition goes active, let users assign what they think the starting percentages should be. Go with an average of 10 users or so, and you'd start with percentages in the right range. There could be a section of the site dedicated to working new propositions before they go live.
posted 42 weeks ago
  14 shadowfax
measure, what a great idea!
posted 42 weeks ago
  15 randburg
What a DUMB BUNNY QUESTION! Questions should be of stimulating interest to at least a large sector of the Hubdub community, if not all. What kind of interest question is THIS??!!
posted 42 weeks ago
  16 jericho
The odds for a question should also be averaged in the first 12 hours of the question.

So if someone asks "Will Jesus come to life, and buy me a beer" with 99% odds of yes. Everyone who votes no for easy money in the first twelve hours would have their odds reset at what the new probability is. (Which would be a very high number of No's) Also the set odds should be much weaker, there should be a virtual $100 or $200 on the question, so once people start bidding the odds will really swing, I have a question where about $500 have been placed down, something it looks like nobody has voted on went from about 26% to 23%

With a weaker system since nobody has voted on it it should be somewhere around 5-10% since it only has (26 or 52 dollars on it out of 500, it looks like the current odds are multiplying the number by four, as in there is a virtual 400 dollars on every question, and over 100 on a question nobody has voted on that started near 25%.)
posted 42 weeks ago
  17 swilson
Based on HubDub members, I'm guessing this would require every one of them to wager atleast 10% of their worth. Impossible.
posted 42 weeks ago
  18 measure
Jericho, that's a great idea as well. It would be simpler to implement than my idea, but the drawback is that there might not be enough people weighing in on a question in the first 12 hours to make the percentage change as it should.

My solution would require all propositions to get a certain number of 'reviews' by different members before letting the props go live. In each review, the member would just be putting in what he thinks the starting percentages should be.

If the prop can't hit that number of reviews, perhaps there isn't enough intrest to put it on the site anyway.
posted 42 weeks ago
Actually the question would be interesting at a slightly lower figure. It'd get near, people would cash in etc.
posted 42 weeks ago
  20 jericho
Probably not a bad idea, just a period where people can add things like...

"When does it end? you didn't put an end date"

"does that mean worldwide or just America"

"celcius or farenheit"

"your odds are really off"

Then they can either send it back for review, or give their blessing. If more people say send back for review the poster should get the option to edit their original question and resubmit.

a more constructive environment, a post shouldn't be denied because it is unpopular, but it should be sent back for changes if the question is flawed in some way, If people can't raise any factual objections to a question it should be allowed to go through, no matter how popular.
posted 42 weeks ago
  21 smidge76
I thought this one was quite clever as well...and wondered the writer was trying to make a point, which it sounds like he/she was. What's getting on my nerves though are all of the copycats. I'm afraid this has started a trend, and it doesn't sound like that was the intention. I know I'm PMSing this week, but sheesh. It's getting on my nerves. It's clever when it's novel. After that it's just lame. I like all of the ideas here though...maybe some of these should be posted on the "get satisfaction page." I've seen a few of them up there, but some of these are either new, or posted on threads that I didn't read.
posted 42 weeks ago
  23 drdavin
I would bet on it becuase it's a sure fire win, but it's not even worth my time. wow I might win 50 bucks if i commit 500, but i didn't think it's a dumb question just the ammount was dumb.
posted 42 weeks ago
It would be nice to have this settled so we can actually get our money. If you won't settle it, just void it so we can move on.
posted 42 weeks ago

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