Created Tue 5th Feb 5:32am PST by
electroaffinity
All questions » Hubdub » Will this question receive over $350,000 in predictions by midnight February 11, 2008 (12:00AM) Eastern Standard Time?
Voided
Is this a new record? Can Hubdub players bring it on?
Spread the word! Email your friends!
Spread the word! Email your friends!
Settlement details:
As determined by the Hubdub Team. $350,001 in predictions or more must be placed on this question before 12:00AM Eastern Standard Time on February 11, 2008.
Suspend date: Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Created Tue 5th Feb 5:32am PST by
electroaffinity
Edited Sun 10th Feb 6:51pm PST by
nigeleccles
Edited Mon 11th Feb 2:10pm PST by
lesley
Suspended Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Tue 12th Feb 1:03pm PST by
robuk
Previous action withdrawn Wed 13th Feb 4:39am PST by
robuk
Voided Wed 13th Feb 4:44am PST by
robuk
Suspend date: Mon 11th Feb 9pm PST
more info...
Predictions (309)
309 predictions
Comments (24)
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But on what grounds should it be voided?
My point is that questions need to be vetted in someway before they are posted.
I don't think pre vetting questions is feasible if they want to grow, even this whole system of on-staff category editors is probably going to get unwieldy if hubdub gets popular. I agree with end_in_sight but I would suggest letting people create as many questions as they like but judging their reputation based on how many people answer their questions as well as considering voids and reviews from users.
I've emailed the operators of this site with an idea to somewhat fix the system... Before a proposition goes active, let users assign what they think the starting percentages should be. Go with an average of 10 users or so, and you'd start with percentages in the right range. There could be a section of the site dedicated to working new propositions before they go live.
So if someone asks "Will Jesus come to life, and buy me a beer" with 99% odds of yes. Everyone who votes no for easy money in the first twelve hours would have their odds reset at what the new probability is. (Which would be a very high number of No's) Also the set odds should be much weaker, there should be a virtual $100 or $200 on the question, so once people start bidding the odds will really swing, I have a question where about $500 have been placed down, something it looks like nobody has voted on went from about 26% to 23%
With a weaker system since nobody has voted on it it should be somewhere around 5-10% since it only has (26 or 52 dollars on it out of 500, it looks like the current odds are multiplying the number by four, as in there is a virtual 400 dollars on every question, and over 100 on a question nobody has voted on that started near 25%.)
My solution would require all propositions to get a certain number of 'reviews' by different members before letting the props go live. In each review, the member would just be putting in what he thinks the starting percentages should be.
If the prop can't hit that number of reviews, perhaps there isn't enough intrest to put it on the site anyway.
"When does it end? you didn't put an end date"
"does that mean worldwide or just America"
"celcius or farenheit"
"your odds are really off"
Then they can either send it back for review, or give their blessing. If more people say send back for review the poster should get the option to edit their original question and resubmit.
a more constructive environment, a post shouldn't be denied because it is unpopular, but it should be sent back for changes if the question is flawed in some way, If people can't raise any factual objections to a question it should be allowed to go through, no matter how popular.
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