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World Wide: how many 4.0 (or greater) earthquakes will there be on Mar. 22, 2008

Voided

I'm really sorry - I didn't pick up the non-mutual outcomes on this question until it had money on it and I can't change the outcomes after the market is running.

I also don't have any provision to settle a market with two winning outcomes.

I was hoping the answer would be something other than 9 so it could be settled properly, but since it is 9 I don't have any choice but to void the market.

Background:

Background: earthquake worldwide

Settlement details:As reported by http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

 
Forecast history %
0 to 3
10%
4 to 6
25%
7 to 9
30%
9 to 12
25%
13 or more
10%
Voided Sat 22nd Mar 2008 11:57pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 21st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: 0 to 3: 10%, 4 to 6: 25%, 7 to 9: 30%, 9 to 12: 25%, 13 or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 19th Mar 2008 5:51am PST by camicius
Edited Fri 21st Mar 2008 8am PST by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Fri 21st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 22nd Mar 2008 4:02pm PST by skipper: according to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
there were 9 earth quakes on 3/22/08 (the newest update isun Mar 23 0:00:05 UTC 2008)
Settlement requested Sat 22nd Mar 2008 4:10pm PST by shadowfax: Please let this settle as both 7-9 & 9-12. Honestly only fair way to play this.
Voided Sat 22nd Mar 2008 11:57pm PST by tisha[Admin]: I'm really sorry - I didn't pick up the non-mutual outcomes on this question until it had money on it and I can't change the outcomes after the market is running.

I also don't have any provision to settle a market with two winning outcomes.

I was hoping the answer would be something other than 9 so it could be settled properly, but since it is 9 I don't have any choice but to void the market.
Clarified Sat 22nd Mar 2008 11:57pm PST by tisha[Admin]: I'm really sorry - I didn't pick up the non-mutual outcomes on this question until it had money on it and I can't change the outcomes after the market is running.

I also don't have any provision to settle a market with two winning outcomes.

I was hoping the answer would be something other than 9 so it could be settled properly, but since it is 9 I don't have any choice but to void the market.

Suspend date: Fri 21st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (57)

1 year ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to 3 (H$500 at 23%)
1 year ago
dragon01 predicted 7 to 9 (H$400 at 30%)
1 year ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to 3 (H$500 at 14%)
1 year ago
meanderingsearcher predicted 13 or more (H$300 at 37%)
1 year ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to 3 (H$50 at 17%)

Comments (6)

  1 shadowfax
If 9 Quakes M4.0 or greater today happen, I hope both 7-9 (blue bar) and 9-12(yellow bar) win!
it would only be fair. honestly. also because I got the dough on both outcomes, hee hee.
posted 1 year ago
  2 shadowfax
as of 21:39:07 eq website timezone, there have been 9... wow, please please if it is 9 can't we settle them both as "WIN"
c'mon folks a fun hubdub outcome.
jackpot time and happy days are here again.
posted 1 year ago
  3 shadowfax
will be very dissapointed if this settles anything other than 7-9 & 9-12.
posted 1 year ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
I'm really sorry - I didn't pick up the non-mutual outcomes on this question until it had money on it and I can't change the outcomes after the market is running.

I also don't have any provision to settle a market with two winning outcomes.

I was hoping the answer would be something other than 9 so it could be settled properly, but since it is 9 I don't have any choice but to void the market.
posted 1 year ago
  5 shadowfax
Thanks for at least trying with the resource you have. appreciate the detailed 'splenation why you can't settle it. camicius, wil you create more of these, or can I if you not the time? I need your permission please
posted 1 year ago
  6 camicius
I added another question of these...
I do it in my spare time, that is not very variable, if you want create some question you can without problem!!
I'm sorry for the voiding, I will pay much attention the next times!
posted 1 year ago

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